On a cold, wet Tuesday morning in Vancouver, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and a handful of NDP candidates stood behind a podium to make a policy announcement about building homes.
But the focus quickly shifted to the party’s viability as its support has taken a serious nosedive ahead of the 2025 federal election.
The NDP won 25 seats in the 2021 election, more than half of which were in British Columbia, where the party can usually count on strong support.
On April 8, 2025, the CBC Poll Tracker was projecting the NDP would win at most four seats — across the country — in the upcoming election. While that sounds dire, it’s actually up from a projected single seat the week prior.
A political party needs at least 12 elected members in the House of Commons to be a recognized party or have official party status.
When asked by reporters whether he could win his own riding of Burnaby Central, where polls are showing a likely victory for Liberal candidate Wade Chang, Singh dodged the question, instead taking the opportunity to share regular campaign messaging around the importance of this election and the flaws in other parties.
When asked a second time, the NDP leader said, “Absolutely.”
“I’m confident that I’ll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central.”
Singh himself has stopped saying he’s running to become Canada’s prime minister and instead is now focusing his campaign on asking Canadians to elect more MPs.
Murray Rankin, former NDP MP and a B.C. NDP MLA, has voiced support for incumbent Liberal candidate Taleeb Noormohamed in Vancouver Granville, according to an endorsement posted to X by Noormohamed.
In an op-ed for BNN Bloomberg, former NDP leader Tom Mulcair acknowledged the 2025 election is a two-horse race, as Canadians vote for a government they hope can challenge U.S. President Donald Trump, his trade war and his threats on Canadian sovereignty.
“When I was NDP leader, I used to bristle when I heard Liberals warn about not ‘splitting the vote.’ It seemed so entitled, as if ‘the vote’ belonged to them,” Mulcair wrote. “But now I’m hearing even from diehard, lifelong ‘Dippers’ (as we jokingly called ourselves), that the risks to Canada are so great that in this election, they’re going to be helping and voting for the Liberals.”
Simon Fraser University political scientist Sanjay Jeram said three factors have led to the near collapse of the NDP: tariffs, the public’s desire for their votes to matter and the fact that Singh is the longest-serving leader of the three major parties.
Singh has been the leader of the NDP since 2017, whereas Pierre Poilievre took over the Conservative Party in 2022, and Mark Carney became Liberal leader last month.
In those seven-and-a-half years, Singh’s NDP has yet to form government, and even though it has certainly influenced significant changes in the House of Commons, the party doesn’t have its own record to run on, Jeram said.
The tariffs, in particular, have sort of shut the NDP out, Jeram said.
“Many people are voting simply as who they think will manage that issue best,” he said — something it may be difficult for Singh to claim, given the strengths of the other parties.
Vancouver voter Al Henry said he’d consider voting for the NDP if he thought it stood a chance of winning the election, but worries his vote wouldn’t count for much. Instead he’s voting strategically, he said.
“I just hope Poilievre does not get in,” he said.
Jeram said this isn’t an unusual concern.
“There tends to be this, when it comes down to it, people recognizing that this is how the system works,” he said. “They want their vote to matter. They’re choosing based on how can my vote matter best.”
