Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has expressed confidence one or more private-sector pipeline operators will come forward with a plan to ship oilsands crude to the Port of Prince Rupert, B.C., and test the federal government’s new regime to speed along projects deemed in Canada’s national interest.
But if pipeline companies are keen on proposing a new West Coast pipeline project in the near future, they’re not saying so publicly.
“We’ve been in active conversations with many pipeline companies, and I feel like we’re pretty close to having either one or a consortium come forward,” Smith told reporters on Tuesday.
Enbridge Inc. is Canada’s biggest shipper of crude oil with a vast cross-border network. It’s also the company behind the scrapped Northern Gateway oilsands pipeline to the B.C. port of Kitimat, south of Prince Rupert and further inland.
The company said in a written statement Wednesday that it would explore market-diversifying projects, provided the demand is there from customers.
It would also take “real provincial and federal legislative change” around climate policy, regulatory timeliness and Indigenous participation.
“We will be there to build what is needed for our shippers, for Alberta and for Canada — that’s our job, our mission as a company — but only when the conditions make sense and the right framework is in place,” Enbridge said.
Meanwhile, South Bow Corp. would only say it “carefully evaluates all opportunities, especially those that complement our current assets and strengthen our existing corridor.”
South Bow has no infrastructure in B.C. Its Keystone system serves U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries.
The CEO of federally owned pipeline operator Trans Mountain Corp. told reporters earlier this month that his company is among those Smith has spoken to about spearheading a new pipeline.
But Mark Maki said “optimizing the existing kit” is a priority over building something new for now.
Trans Mountain flows to the B.C. Lower Mainland is currently the only way Alberta producers can meaningfully access Asia-Pacific markets.
The new pipeline Smith envisions would ship one million barrels of oil per day, and would be the “anchor tenant” on a corridor that houses other infrastructure.
Richard Masson, an executive fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said it’s hard to see how Smith can entice a private company to get on board.
“She’s pushing to be seen to be doing something and to try and take advantage of the mood in the country,” he said.
“And my concern is that if you only put one option on the table and that option has lots barriers to being realized, you’re going to end up with a lot of disappointed people later.”
For Enbridge, Masson said one stumbling block would be how a potential new West Coast system may affect the economics of its Mainline system, which on any given day is the largest-single conduit for Canadian crude flowing by pipeline to the United States.
A new pipeline would likely have to be underpinned by decades-long commitments from customers to pay to use it, whereas the Mainline is more flexible, he said.
If customers are already locked into paying to use any potential West Coast system, there’s more incentive to move crude on that before the Mainline.
“That means volumes that would be going down the Enbridge Mainline get pulled off and put on to the new system,” Masson said. “So Enbridge seems like an unlikely company unless there is some kind of industry or government support, so that they weren’t worse off on the Mainline system.”
South Bow, which was spun off last year from TC Energy, is a smaller company and is unlikely to have the capacity for such an undertaking, Masson said.
Trans Mountain — a Crown corporation — delivered its expansion last year at a massively higher cost than when it was first proposed.
“So, not easy to see that happening unless the federal government says, ‘We want you to do it, so do it,”‘ Masson said.
As for other Canadian energy infrastructure players like Keyera Corp. and Pembina Pipeline Corp., a crude pipeline wouldn’t be a fit as they’re more geared toward natural gas, Masson added.
“Their investors would be unhappy if they got into it because it’s such a big project compared to the size of the company and it’s outside their core expertise.”
Another major obstacle is the federal government’s tanker ban on the West Coast, which ultimately spelled the end of Northern Gateway.
During the pitched debate over that defunct project, First Nations and environmental groups were vehemently opposed to crude oil tankers sailing along the rugged, island-dotted northern B.C. coast and raised alarm over the ecological damage that could result from a spill.
Smith and industry players have been pushing Ottawa to lift the ban, but to date there’s no sign the Liberal government will oblige.
“This is simply not an area where we can have a pipeline,” said Anna Barford, oceans campaigner with Stand.Earth in Vancouver.
“When Alberta says pipelines, for us that means tankers.”
