The consensus is leaning heavily toward the Bitcoin price heading into another drawn-out bear market after hitting its $126,000 all-time high back in October. However, some analysts have shared that this will not happen in a straight line. But rather, there will be short relief rallies that send the price higher before moving into the next phase of the bear market. One of these analysts is TradingShot, who has shared what they refer to as ‘realistic’ price targets that the Bitcoin price can still hit before slipping fully into the bear market.
Bitcoin’s Tendency To Recover
TradingShot’s analysis does not go against the idea of a bear market, but rather points to the fact that Bitcoin is yet to enter a new Bull Cycle. The analysis focuses on the sell-offs that the cryptocurrency has suffered since hitting its all-time high, pushing it into a bearish leg. The analyst draws similarities between the current market structure and what was seen in the market decline between January 20 and April 7, showing that they are both part of a “Channel Up” formation.
Another interesting fact about the current trend is the fact that, just like the January-April trend, it has also completed a 1-Day MACD Bullish Cross. This was a formation that led to a brief recovery back in March, and the same could be the case this time around.
Such a rally, the analyst explains, is known as a counter-trend rally, and another one could be underway. If this is the case, then the Bitcoin price could be gearing up to retest the Lower Highs trendline, putting the contact points at significantly higher price levels than Bitcoin is currently trending at.
The Targets That Could Materialize
In the event that this Bitcoin price counter-trend rally does play out, TradingShot outlines two major targets that the cryptocurrency could hit. The first of these lies at $95,850, which coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This level is the rejection point for the April 2025 rally, making it an important play.
Above this first target lies the second and final target of $106,450. This target, interestingly, lies outside of the Lower Highs trendline, but remains a viable option. It would occur in a situation where the Bitcoin price makes contact with the 1D MA200. The analyst explains that “This is where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is, which was also Target 2 for the April fractal and where the second consolidation took place.”
