As the week began, the XRP price experienced a 4% decline, bringing it nearly 50% below its all-time highs. However, analysts forecast significant gains for one of the market’s leading altcoins in January 2026, citing three major catalysts that could reshape its market outlook.
A Major Step Towards Broader Access
In a recent analysis, Sam Daodu, a market expert from 24/7 Wall St., emphasized the importance of Vanguard’s decision to approve trading of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Daodu emphasized that the real significance lies in the facilitation of distribution; with Vanguard’s advisors able to allocate XRP exposure through regulated ETFs without additional cumbersome processes.
He indicated that three interrelated factors are now at play: the influx of institutional capital through ETF investments, a reduction in supply, and the influence of Vanguard in altering the approach towards the asset.
Notably, the results of the token’s exchange-traded fund launch have already been notable, with XRP inflows hitting $1 billion within the first four weeks of trading, making it one of the fastest-growing crypto ETF launches to date.
Additionally, XRP’s market supply has contracted significantly, dropping by 45% from approximately 3.9 billion tokens at the beginning of 2025 to about 1.6 billion by December.
This contraction can be attributed to large holders refraining from distributing their tokens, leading to an accumulation in whale wallets and the removal of tokens from liquid markets due to ETF custody.
This decreased supply implies that smaller inflows now carry greater influence. With only 1.6 billion tokens available on exchanges, investments of $20-30 million in daily ETF purchases can have a substantive impact on market supply.
A Key Driver For Price Appreciation
The Vanguard XRP ETF launch is particularly significant in this context, as it locks tokens into regulated custody vehicles that are less likely to be sold frequently.
Unlike tokens held on exchanges that can be quickly moved in and out, ETF custody tends to encourage a buy-and-hold strategy, fostering conditions for gradual price appreciation fueled by sustained institutional demand amid a diminishing available supply.
Given that the decision to provide ETF access came late in the year, year-end trading typically focuses on maintaining existing allocations rather than creating new positions.
While the ETF adds credibility to XRP without causing immediate price pressure, its journey to a $3 valuation by January will depend on how swiftly advisory capital mobilizes, the durability of supply compression, and the overall stability of the markets.
XRP Price Path To $3
Three potential scenarios present themselves for XRP’s future. The most optimistic scenario sees advisory capital moving quicker than typical, perhaps allowing advisors to integrate small XRP allocations during January’s rebalancing.
In this case, XRP ETF inflows could remain robust, ranging from $40-60 million daily, while the locked-up supply on exchanges supports a price increase that could see the XRP price surpass $2.25, aim for $2.60, and potentially test $3 by the end of January.
The middle-ground perspective suggests a more conventional institutional timing. In this scenario, while the XRP ETF access will gain attention in December, actual allocations might ramp up gradually, leading to a daily influx of about $20-30 million instead of the earlier expected pace.
Here, the XRP price could establish higher lows and breach the $2.25 mark, facing resistance between $2.40 and $2.80. Price fluctuations would focus more on future adoption rather than immediate implications.
According to Daodu’s conclusions, and given these circumstances, the XRP price reaching $3 could take until the first or second quarter of 2026 rather than being an immediate milestone.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
