After a wild year in Canadian politics that began with Justin Trudeau’s resignation and ended with Conservative MPs crossing the floor to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government, 2026 is shaping up to be just as action-packed.
It’ll be a year where U.S. trade talks will loom large. Meanwhile, federal opposition parties will make key decisions on their futures as the Liberal government — just one seat shy of a majority government — strategizes what to do next.
Here are five key Canadian politics stories to watch in 2026:
A mandatory review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement on trade will begin next year. Earlier this month, Carney said Canada will enter into formal discussions with the United States in January.
The agreement has given Canada some crucial protection since the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade war. Several tariffs that Trump has imposed since March have included carve-outs for CUSMA-compliant goods.
But the Canadian economy is still being battered by a litany of sectoral tariffs on key sectors like steel, aluminum, automobiles and lumber.
Trump administration lays out demands to stay in CUSMA
Earlier this month, Trump’s point-person on trade laid out a series of conditions that Canada must meet to extend the agreement, and it’s not cheap.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that Canada must bolster “market access for U.S. dairy products” — a swipe at supply-management — and the Canadian government must address provincial bans on U.S. alcohol.
Greer also said the U.S. will take aim at the Online Streaming Act, which brought online platforms like Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube under Canadian broadcasting rules.
That legislation was brought about to force U.S. web giants to contribute financially to the domestic media ecosystem and make Canadian content readily available on their platforms, which have become ubiquitous as traditional TV, cable and satellite providers shed subscribers.
Carney has said Trump hasn’t given him any indication he’s willing to walk away from CUSMA, which the U.S. president struck during his first term at the White House.
Carney says sectoral tariffs will be part of CUSMA renegotiation
Canada will also be watching the U.S. Supreme Court, which is currently considering whether some of Trump’s tariffs are legal and whether he overstepped his authority by invoking his emergency powers to impose them.
The White House, for its part, appears ready for that possibility and has backup plans ready to go should they lose that case.
At the end of January, Conservative members will gather in Calgary to map out the party’s future, which includes a key decision on whether Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre should stay in the top job — as required by the party after an election loss.
Poilievre has said he’s confident he’ll pass the review, and to date nobody has publicly said they’re vying for his job.
Despite the election loss, the Conservatives did pick up 24 new seats and took home 42 per cent of total votes — an outcome that Poilievre has referenced as a key reason the party is trending in the right direction.
Poilievre says MPs defecting from Conservatives ‘a problem of Mark Carney’s leadership’
Still, Poilievre has taken major blows this year. He was considered nearly-guaranteed to be Canada’s next prime minister until Carney came along and Trump’s trade war upended the election campaign, which prompted questions about his election strategy.
Then in November, Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont resigned from the Conservative caucus likened the party to a frat house.
In December, Ontario MP Michael Ma also left the Conservatives and joined the Liberals. He said in a statement that Carney offers the “steady, practical approach” Canada needs to deliver on the priorities he hears in his riding of Markham-Unionville.
Poilievre has denied his leadership is a problem. Instead, he’s accused the prime minister of “trying to manipulate his way through backroom deals to get that majority.”
The Conservative leader has made some changes to his inner circle. In November, Poilievre tapped veteran conservative strategist Steve Outhouse to be the party’s next campaign manager, a move that several Conservative MPs celebrated.
Because of the two floor-crossers, Carney is just one seat away from obtaining a coveted majority government — and Liberals are hinting there are more MPs who could make the jump.
When asked whether more opposition MPs are getting ready to cross the floor to join the government, Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said earlier this month that people have reached out.
“Let’s say I’m getting lots of inquiries,” Hodgson told a Toronto news conference.
Hodgson says he’s ‘getting lots of inquiries’ when asked about more floor-crossers
Similarly, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne told CBC News he thinks some Conservative MPs “will do some soul-searching” over the holiday break.
In a year-end interview with chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton, Carney said that “a spectrum of MPs” are enticed by his brand of governing, but he did not answer when asked if there’s an active recruitment campaign to poach from other parties. He said MPs “face their own decisions” about the political action Canada needs.
Carney’s government has struggled at times to get its agenda through the House of Commons. In November, Canada was brought to the brink of a holiday election until a vote on the budget narrowly passed.
Ultimately, four opposition MPs, two Conservatives and two New Democrats abstained during the confidence vote. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May also voted in favour of the budget.
After a crushing election loss that saw the party reduced to just seven seats, the NDP will elect a new leader in March.
There are five candidates in the race: Edmonton MP Heather McPherson, former journalist Avi Lewis, B.C. union leader Rob Ashton, Ontario organic farmer Tony McQuail and Tanille Johnston, a city councillor in Campbell River, B.C.
Whoever wins the race will be tasked with getting the NDP out of the political wilderness. The party recently released its internal campaign review, which cited a “brutal environment” that led to its worst election loss.
“Voters adopted a ‘Trump/Poilievre/Carney’ mindset long before the election began. We heard that the NDP did not effectively counter this frame, failed to articulate its own theory of change and did not manage to assert its message on priorities like housing and affordability,” the report stated.
At the end of November, the five candidates participated in a bilingual debate in Montreal. None of them are bilingual — an obstacle that could hinder the party’s chances in riding-rich Quebec.
The NDP’s next scheduled debate, which will be held completely in English, is set for February in B.C.
After the Liberals won the federal election, they introduced a border security bill meant to advance talks with the White House, but the legislation has faced numerous obstacles and can’t become law until at least February.
The first iteration of the legislation, Bill C-2, proposed expanded powers on law enforcement and government, with provisions to crack down on money laundering, put strict limits on refugee claims and allow agencies to share information more easily.
Liberals introduce 2nd border bill without ‘contentious elements’ of 1st one
But opposition parties and civil liberties experts expressed concerns about potential overreach and “snooping” provisions. The NDP and Conservatives said they would not support C-2, so the Liberals took the drug control elements and immigration changes and dropped them into a new bill, C-12, to move those parts along faster.
Bill C-12 is now in the Senate, but still needs to be studied there. The Senate doesn’t resume sitting until Feb. 3.
Other pieces of legislation are also in the hopper. That includes Bill C-4, which officially approves the personal income tax cut and consumer carbon tax changes, and Bill C-14, which makes dozens of changes to the bail and sentencing framework in the federal Criminal Code.
