The Bitcoin long-term holders have seen their losses balloon recently, but historical data shows bear markets bottomed out at yet higher levels.
Bitcoin LTH Losses Currently Equivalent To 14% Of The Market Cap
As pointed out by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode in an X post, the Unrealized Loss among the Bitcoin long-term holders has been elevated recently. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) here refer to to the BTC investors who have been holding their tokens since more than 155 days ago. This group is considered to include the resolute “HODLers” of the market.
Since the last quarter of 2025, BTC has significantly gone down along with the wider cryptocurrency sector, and these long-term holders have also naturally been affected. An indicator that can be useful for gauging the effect of a drawdown on investors is the “Unrealized Loss,” which measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that BTC investors are carrying right now.
The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine whether its last transfer price was greater than the current spot price. Coins that fulfill this condition are assumed to be at a loss equal to the difference between the two prices. The Unrealized Loss sums up this value for all tokens of the loss type.
In the context of the current topic, a modified form of the indicator called the Relative Unrealized Loss is of interest. This metric represents the holder loss as a percentage of the market cap.
Now here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss for the LTHs:
As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin LTH Relative Unrealized Loss has observed a rise over the last few months, a consequence of the bearish price action as well as the maturation of coins bought at the market top into the LTH cohort.
Today, the indicator’s value is sitting at 14%, meaning that the loss held by the diamond hands is equivalent to 14% of the total valuation of the cryptocurrency. This is the highest degree of pain that the LTHs have faced since 2023.
It’s visible from the chart, however, that the last two bear markets both saw the indicator spike to much higher levels, with notable peaks of around 70% forming during their bottoms.
While it’s uncertain whether the latest Bitcoin cycle will also have to see a similar level of pain among the LTHs before a bottom, the fact that the Relative Unrealized Loss still significantly lags behind could be noteworthy.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has recovered back above the $72,000 mark with its latest rally.
