How good is this year’s flu shot? Here’s what to know about flu season

Walking down the street this week, it may seem like everyone is sneezing and hacking up a lung. But as health officials announce the start of an earlier than usual flu season, how worried should Canadians be? And as we head into Thanksgiving weekend, should we be scrambling to update flu and COVID-19 shots? 

Some experts say that while this year’s flu season may have arrived on our doorstep sooner than usual, it’s not necessarily a cause for alarm — but other experts are stressing the importance of prevention in heavy-hit regions such as Toronto and Calgary, where authorities reported one person had already died from the virus.

The strain making up roughly 98 per cent of cases in Canada so far tends to be a milder one, according to Brian Ward, professor emeritus at the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre in Montreal.

“So far at least, this looks like an H1N1 dominated year, and the years where H1N1 dominates, you can have very large outbreaks, but the number or the proportion of people … who get very sick, is relatively small compared to years that are dominated by H3N2,” he told CBC News. 

“I’m not convinced yet that we’re actually seeing the beginning of a real outbreak. What we’re seeing is sort of isolated, small outbreaks.”

But where the flu is striking, doctors say it’s striking hard. There are currently more than 400 confirmed flu cases in Alberta, where vaccines aren’t yet widely available.

Doctors say flu season is ahead of schedule this year as cases pop up across Ontario

1 dead, more than 400 confirmed flu cases ahead of vaccine availability in Alberta

Some regions have started rolling out flu and COVID-19 shots to high-risk populations, with most regions set to offer shots to the general public by mid-October.

Here’s what we know. 

According to the latest national numbers, which include data on influenza trends up to Sept. 26, there have been 2,102 detections of influenza across the country since the end of August. 

It’s an early start to the season. Between Sept. 20 and Sept. 26, 3.7 per cent of influenza tests came back positive, much higher than the average 0.5 per cent rate seen this time of year in 2023-2025. 

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Flu and COVID-19 vaccinations underway in B.C. as respiratory illness season arrives early

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But much of this national increase is driven by an uptick of cases in B.C. and Yukon, and in large cities such as Toronto and Calgary. The person who died in Alberta lived in the Calgary area and was in the 70-79 years age range, authorities say.

“The rest of the country is really very quiet,” Ward said. 

B.C. warns of early start to flu season, launches fall immunization campaign

He noted that in B.C., outbreaks in long-term care homes are driving the increase in cases, warning that families getting together this holiday weekend could result in further spread.

“That may be the seed that moves the virus … into the schools and universities and marketplaces and so on. But overall, we’re still below the 5 per cent [epidemic] threshold.”

Official figures don’t catch every case of flu, as not everyone seeks out a test when they fall ill. 

In hard-hit Toronto, family doctor Joseph Param told CBC News the increase of flu patients he’s seeing at his practice is mainly among young adults who are more likely to travel on public transit and may still go to work when feeling under the weather, perhaps because they’re used to flu season starting later. 

You’re not imagining it — flu season has started early this year

“Over the last couple of weeks, patients who are very healthy who see me rarely have been coming in with severe symptoms,” he said.

“So it is important that the general population is aware that we are seeing … early cases now and so that we start taking precautions earlier than expected.”

Doctors advise Canadians to stay home if they feel ill and to get vaccinated as soon as shots become available in their area, particularly with the long weekend coming up. 

The protection of flu shots varies from year to year depending on the most dominant strain of influenza in your area.  

This year, it’s a “good” match, Ward said. Although H3N2 viruses dominated for much of 2025, that subtype hasn’t cropped up much in 2026, and this year’s vaccine is well-positioned to protect against H1N1. 

He said “influenza viruses march to their own drummers” and can mutate even within one flu season. 

It’s not just flu season in Canada — historically, we see more respiratory illnesses in general cropping up during the fall and going into winter, including colds and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the latter of which is most dangerous in young children.

Around 98 per cent of lab-confirmed cases of influenza in Canada since the end of August have been of the H1N1 strain, according to government data. (New Africa/Shutterstock)

Rates of COVID-19 are currently trending lower right now than last year, with 3.8 per cent of tests coming back positive in the last week of September compared with 10.3 per cent at the same time in 2025. 

The National Advisory Committee on Immunizations (NACI) said in September that it continues to “strongly recommend” the latest COVID-19 booster shots for those at a higher risk of developing severe COVID-19, including health-care workers, adults over the age of 65, those with immunocompromised systems and people in long-term care homes.

Several provinces such as Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia are already advising residents that appointments for flu vaccines and COVID-19 booster shots are available now for residents over the age of six months. 

New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are currently allowing residents to book their flu and COVID-19 vaccines, with immunization efforts officially kicking off on Oct. 13. 

Those living in Newfoundland and Labrador can receive flu and COVID-19 shots starting Oct. 19. 

In Ontario, flu and COVID-19 immunizations have been available since last week for high-risk groups, but don’t open to the general public until Oct. 26. 

In Quebec, you can start making appointments as of Oct. 13, but the flu and COVID-19 vaccination campaign itself doesn’t begin until Oct. 20. It is only free to eligible residents deemed high-risk, meaning non-eligible residents must pay for the shots. 

Updated COVID-19, flu vaccines available in N.B. on Oct. 13

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Flu and COVID-19 shots can be booked now in Alberta, with the first appointments starting Oct. 19. While flu shots are free to everyone, Albertans who aren’t considered high-risk for COVID-19 will have to pay. 

In B.C., those registered in their Get Vaccinated system will receive a notification reminding them to get their flu shots. Flu and COVID-19 shots are available starting Oct. 13. 

COVID-19 and flu shots will be available at specific clinics in the Northwest Territories this fall, but a timeline hasn’t been released yet. Those in Yukon have been able to book appointments for flu and COVID-19 shots since the end of September. No details have been released for Nunavut’s rollout as of Oct. 8. 

Before heading out to the pharmacy, it’s important to check the requirements in your area to be sure that you’re eligible. Most regions offer RSV vaccines to eligible patients as well. 

In the future, we could see more variety in our flu vaccines: an mRNA influenza vaccine made by Moderna was approved by the FDA in the U.S. in the summer, making this the first flu season it’ll face. It’s still under review by Health Canada.