Ontario will provide a key economic update Thursday after repeated warnings from the province’s treasurer that its mini-budget will be awash in red ink.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy has been saying for weeks that the ongoing trade war with the United States will contribute to a higher than expected deficit. Despite that, he’s promised to deliver a “focused, disciplined and responsible approach” to spending.
“I don’t like deficits,” Bethlenfalvy said this week at Queen’s Park. “But these are the times we’re in, and yes, we’re going to have deficits for the near-term.”
Ontario closed out the 2025-26 fiscal year with a $13-billion deficit, and Bethlenfalvy has said this year’s is projected to be higher. The spring budget forecast a $13.8-billion deficit.
In that spending plan, Bethlenfalvy delayed the province’s path to balance, projecting it will be in the black in 2028-29.
He said Ontario has weathered the impacts of American tariffs better than economists had anticipated, but the slower economy is having an impact and leading to deficits as a necessity.
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The finance minister has said the province is putting its ministries and agencies under the microscope to find savings. He said recently that would include “curtailing head counts,” but stressed it does not mean the government will be laying off public sector workers.
Bethlenfalvy has been tight-lipped about what the economic update will contain in terms of new spending or policy measures. But on Tuesday, he announced $8 billion in tax relief for businesses in an effort spur investment in the province.
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“The world has changed, and so … we’ll be laying out the update on where we’re at, making sure that we continue to focus on what’s right in front of us and what’s potentially down around the corner,” he said.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles is pictured during a debate between Ontario’s major party leaders in Toronto on Feb. 17, 2025. (Alex Lupul/CBC)
Opposition leaders have criticized government spending, questioning the Ford government’s priorities.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles said she’s concerned about the state of the province’s books. She challenged Bethlenfalvy to cut back on spending by cabinet ministers, pointing to an expense scandal that dogged the government this summer.
“He calls himself a prudent fiscal manager, and look at the deficit that we have in this province,” she said. “It’s shameful, but look, if they want to talk about tightening belts, they should start with themselves.”
Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser said the Progressive Conservatives have used the trade war as the rationale for many of the policies since 2025, but have offered little relief for regular Ontarians.
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“What you don’t see is a real clear plan for what we’re going to do, other than we have tariffs,” he said.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said the government needs to look at introducing new fiscal policies in the update. That includes a tax targeting the province’s wealthiest citizens to help fund affordability measures, he said.
“This is exactly why we need a wealth tax so we can invest in the things the people of Ontario need without increasing taxes on small businesses, doctors, lawyers, like teachers, nurses, everyday folks,” he said. “The super rich in this province should pay their fair share.”
