Bitcoin is bleeding ahead of the biggest AI listing in history. But if the market follows the script it wrote just five months ago, the selling could soon run out of fuel.
BTC dropped below $67,000 this week, its weakest level since August, as investors pulled money from spot ETFs ahead of the Anthropic IPO. Anthropic is set to price its shares on Nov. 18 and begin trading on Nasdaq on Nov. 19.
The big question on crypto is simple: are whales selling bitcoin to buy into the Anthropic IPO? The data offers some clues.
$2.35 Billion Leaves Bitcoin ETFs In Two Weeks
According to figures circulating widely on X, about $2.35 billion has flowed out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT has led the exodus with 11 straight sessions of redemptions, accounting for roughly 90% of November’s outflows.
The theory is that investors are raising cash for their IPO allocations. Demand for Anthropic shares is enormous, with order books reported to be about six times oversubscribed for a raise of up to $64.4 billion.
Macro pressure is adding to the strain. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s support for a December rate hike pushed CME FedWatch odds of such a move to 96.3%, while a tech sell-off has weighed on all risk assets. Bitcoin crashed below $70,000 earlier this week as liquidations topped $1.6 billion.
The SpaceX Playbook
This has happened before. In the run-up to SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO in June, Bitcoin went through an almost identical cycle:
- Bitcoin fell about 28% from its May peak.
- It bottomed near $59,000 a week before the listing.
- It climbed about 8% into SpaceX’s June 12 trading debut.
- It eventually rallied around 37% from that low.
The bottom is well documented. Bitcoin touched as low as $59,375 on June 5, as data showed at the time. Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick then called the cycle low, arguing that heavy selling of spot Bitcoin ETFs, partly to free cash for SpaceX’s IPO, was likely to ease once the listing began.
The scale of that drain was large. More than $5.72 billion of spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions since mid-May were tied to investors freeing capital for the SpaceX offering.
A Chart Shows Bitcoin Tracking The SpaceX Path
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen took the comparison a step further. In a post on X, e overlaid Bitcoin’s price in the 30 days before and after the SpaceX IPO with its performance in the roughly 30 days leading up to the Anthropic listing.
The two lines move almost in lockstep through the start of the window, each slipping a few percent in the first week.
The SpaceX path also offers a lesson in patience. In Cowen’s chart, Bitcoin was down about 20% by SpaceX’s listing day and dipped to roughly 25% below its starting point in the weeks after, before stabilizing. The real recovery came later, once the IPO selling pressure had fully cleared.
If the pattern holds, more selling could happen around Nov. 19. But it would also suggest the market is in the late stages of the drawdown, not the beginning.
Why The Anthropic IPO Could Hit Bitcoin Less Hard
There are two reasons the selling pressure could be lighter this time.
First, the retail slice is smaller. Anthropic expects to allocate up to 20% of its IPO shares to retail investors, about $11.55 billion to $12.87 billion at its price range, according to FourWeekMBA’s analysis of the company’s amended prospectus. SpaceX initially planned to give retail around 30% of a much larger $75 billion deal, before trimming it to the low 20% range.
A smaller retail pool means less cash that needs to be raised, potentially by selling crypto.
Second, Anthropic’s separate $26 billion private placement is being funded by its own compute suppliers, including Nvidia, Google and Microsoft. That money comes from corporate balance sheets, not the same pool of investor cash that might otherwise sit in bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch
The first level for bulls is $70,000. Reclaiming it would show buyers stepping back in after a sharp week.
Above that, the $76,000 zone is the next key hurdle, followed by the $80,000 to $82,000 resistance range.
On the downside, this week’s low near $67,000 is the line to hold. A break below it could open a move toward the $59,000 to $60,000 area, the same zone where Bitcoin bottomed before the SpaceX listing.
Still, the IPO is not the only driver. If the Fed’s rate decision and the tech sell-off keep pushing investors out of risk, the end of IPO selling alone won’t be enough to turn Bitcoin around. For more updates, follow the latest Bitcoin news.
What do you think?
Is Bitcoin close to a bottom ahead of the Anthropic IPO, and are you buying this dip?
