Why there is hope of a Carney-Trump tariff breakthrough at G7 summit in Alberta

Global trade will be a major focus at next week’s G7 summit as world leaders gather in Alberta, including U.S. President Donald Trump, who will be making his first appearance at a major international event since returning to the White House in January.

Experts and ambassadors are expressing some optimism that this type of event could be a difference-maker in convincing Trump to reduce the amount of tariffs charged on imports to the U.S.

Any possible concessions on the trade front would be welcomed by countries such as Canada, that are facing economic hardship because of tariffs.

“It’s issue No. 1,” said John Kirton, director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto. 

On Wednesday, CBC News and Radio-Canada reported that talks between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Donald Trump are advanced enough that a document containing a draft economic and security agreement has been exchanged between the Prime Minister’s Office and the White House.

Ottawa is stepping up its efforts in recent weeks to reach an agreement before the end of the G7 summit.

Global trade has slowed as a result of the ever-changing tariffs announced by Trump that have targeted various countries and also certain materials, such as steel and aluminum. In response, many countries, including Canada, have enacted their own tariffs.

Canada’s unemployment rate has climbed to seven per cent, which economists say is a sign the trade war with the U.S. is taking a toll on the job market, especially the manufacturing sector.

Trade and tariffs are the “make or break issue” that will determine whether the summit in the Alberta Rocky Mountain village of Kananaskis Country is a success or not, said Kirton.

For now, he’s hopeful the various leaders’ meetings and one-on-one conversations could produce results. 

“[Trump] likes to deliver big wins and the other G7 leaders are smart enough to deliver agreements which are real wins,” said Kirton, pointing to how countries could pledge to increase defence spending and make other commitments, in exchange for lower tariffs on imports into the U.S.

World leaders, including Carney, Trump and leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, as well as the European Union, are meeting in Alberta from June 15 to 17 for talks on a variety of other issues, including climate change and managing rapidly evolving technology.

The summit is a high-profile event, yet only involves a handful of world leaders, which is noteworthy, said Gary Mar, CEO of the Canada West Foundation, an Alberta-based think-tank.

“One of the reasons the G7 is effective is because it’s a small group. It’s small enough that it’s focused and can really be productive,” said Mar, who was part of the welcoming party at the Calgary airport when world leaders arrived for the last summit held in Kananaskis in 2002.

Trade was not nearly as contentious at that gathering, but rather promoted as having a profound impact on economic growth and development around the world.

At the time, U.S. President George Bush even highlighted the value of trade with Canada during the opening press conference.

“We’ve got a significant relationship together. It’s a vibrant, positive friendship,” said Bush. “Trade is in the interests of all of us. There are some problems on occasion, but we’ve got the kind of relationship where we can be very frank about it and try to work them out.”

The 2002 summit was held less than 12 months after the terrorist attack on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, which is why the main focus was to discuss the war on terrorism and responding to the threat of weapons of mass destruction.

Geopolitical tension and conflicts are expected to be one of the talking points at this year’s G7, but the tariff situation will likely top the agenda.

Trade policy needs to be discussed urgently, said Matthias Lüttenberg, Germany’s ambassador to Canada, while on stage at a recent event in Calgary to discuss the G7.

Free trade and open markets for Germany is “one of the most important pillars of our economic world view and it’s the foundation of prosperity and sustainable growth for all of us,” he said.

The G7 has an important role to play and the summit has value in producing results on global issues, Lüttenberg said, a sentiment shared by other ambassadors attending the G7 event.

“We know how it works and we have achieved so much together already. And I’m not only talking about leader statements, but it’s also the practical work,” he explained, pointing to the example of how the G7 agreed on certain sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, while also working toward how to help Ukraine rebuild.

Global economic growth is slowing more than expected only a few months ago as a result of the Trump administration’s trade war, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said earlier this month. 

The global economy is on pace to slow from 3.3 per cent last year to 2.9 per cent in 2025 because of the tariff fallout, the agency said, trimming its estimates from March for growth of 3.1 per cent this year.