As Canada prepares Tuesday to blow out 158 birthday candles, Alberta plans three days later to formalize rules making it easier to have an independence celebration of its own.
Beginning Friday, Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative government is officially lowering the required threshold for citizens to initiate a provincewide referendum, including on separation.
Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a non-profit group touring Alberta promoting independence, said he plans to apply to Elections Alberta that same day to start a petition under the new rules.
The group aims to gather 177,000 signatures within 120 days to put the question on a ballot to voters: Do you agree the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?
“I would not be surprised if that referendum was held right now that we could possibly even win it,” Sylvestre told The Canadian Press.
He said many Albertans are skeptical Prime Minister Mark Carney will be able to restore trust after federal policies for years siphoned Alberta’s resource riches elsewhere.
Why Alberta separation is seen as a ‘real possibility’
At the same time, Thomas Lukaszuk, a former Progressive Conservative deputy premier in Alberta, is working to thwart that separatist effort.
Lukaszuk, now out of politics, argues that Alberta’s rules do not allow for two competing petitions on the same issue.
“There’s only one petition at a time, so mine precludes theirs,” he said.
On Monday, Elections Alberta approved his application to undertake a petition for the province to declare its official policy is to remain within Canada.
Since Lukaszuk applied before the new rules took effect, he’ll need to collect 600,000 signatures, but he said he’s confident that enough Albertans would sign their name.
Chief Electoral Officer Gordon McClure said in a Monday statement that Lukaszuk has 30 days to appoint a chief financial officer for his campaign, after which he’ll be able to start gathering signatures.
The petition is being called the ‘Alberta Forever Canada’ petition.
Sylvestre said he will be submitting papers for the second time on Friday. He said he believes Lukaszuk’s petition effort might delay the push for Alberta independence but believes it will fail to gather so many signatures within the old threshold of 90 days.
Recent polls have suggested that support for separatism in Alberta hasn’t reached majority territory. But, Sylvestre said, interest in holding an independence referendum is growing with each speaking event they organize.
“The more people that hear what the message is, the more people that will be in favour,” he said.
What could Alberta separation mean for First Nations in the province?
Elections Alberta has said each application is evaluated in the order received but cannot comment on the applications submitted so far.
Legal experts say a vote to sever ties with Canada would toss the country into uncharted waters, potentially prompting complex negotiations among governments and First Nations.
Smith’s government introduced the bill quickly after Carney’s election victory earlier this year but said it would have been proposed regardless of the outcome.
In defending her legislation, Smith said the growing number of Albertans unhappy with Confederation are right to be frustrated, and she wants to see more opportunities for direct democracy. She has long said she wants her province to be sovereign within a united Canada.
That’s a phrase Lukaszuk calls meaningless.
“That’s like me saying, ‘I am single within the confines of my marriage,”‘ he said.
Asked earlier this week what her government could do to quell separatist aspirations, Smith said it was Ottawa’s responsibility to reverse policies she said stifle energy production and investment in Alberta.
In recent months, she has called for Carney to abolish several federal policies and programs, including a proposed greenhouse gas emissions cap, net-zero electricity grid regulations and the West Coast tanker ban.
“This is really in Ottawa’s hands,” Smith said Thursday.
While Lukaszuk said Smith is entitled to negotiate with the federal government, she shouldn’t use the threat of secession as leverage.
He said the UCP’s referendum legislation is dangerous and could open a Pandora’s box of ballot questions, including some that may backfire on Smith’s government.
