After years of prolonged drought conditions forced many Canadian cattle farmers to shrink their herds, cattle numbers are seeing their first year-over-year increase since 2021, according to the latest numbers from Statistics Canada.
As of July 1, Canadian ranchers had 11.9 million cattle and calves on their farms, an increase of 0.8 per cent from the same time last year.
In Alberta, cattle head rose by 1.3 per cent, to 5.1 million, compared to last July.
The national data agency attributes the growth to higher breeding stock retention, as well as a five per cent drop in the number of cattle and calves being slaughtered.
Cattle rancher Greg Hawkwood said the numbers don’t lie, but he also thinks Alberta’s recent wet, rainy weather is the main factor behind herd growth in the province.
“We didn’t know whether we were going to have to downsize up here because of the drought conditions,” he said, adding the situation wasn’t looking good after a lack of snow melt in the spring
“Then it started raining the 16th or 15th of June and now it just looks absolutely fabulous.”
The high cost of feed during the severe drought years forced many southern Alberta ranchers to sell off large portions of their herds. In recent months, however, crop yields have been “phenomenal,” Hawkwood said, adding he’s hoping to add about 25 cows to the herd on his ranch northwest of Calgary.
“The pastures are so green. I’ve never seen them this green and this late in August,” Hawkwood said.
Jamie Kerr, a market analyst with Canfax which tracks cattle market data, said the increase in moisture created ideal growing conditions for feed crops like hay and barley, which in turn kept their prices low. Instead of being forced to sell off large portions of their herd, Kerr said ranchers had the feed stock to keep more of their cattle.
“They’re finally able to replenish some of those stocks and that’s given them a wee bit of resolve as they look at the prospect of capitalizing on what may be even higher prices in the next couple years,” he said.
Shrinking cattle herds have sent beef prices soaring at the grocery store. As of May 2025, the price of ground beef rose by 25 per cent, bringing the cost per kilogram to $14.67.
Even though cattle herd numbers appear to be getting stronger, Kerr said it could still be a while before consumers see any change in retail prices.
“Assuming this expansion does take hold and it continues, we won’t see any major relief from the supply side at grocery stores for the next 18 months,” Kerr said, explaining that’s roughly how long it takes for calves to mature enough for processing.
Herd supply is still tight throughout North America, which will also continue to put pressure on the consumer market for the next year or two, Kerr said.
Outside of the grocery store, Hawkwood said many ranchers remain concerned hot, dry weather could return, especially as several parts of the province are under a heat warning.
“There’s great optimism now that the herds are going to increase because the grass is back,” Hawkwood said. “The only issue is water now.”
High volumes of snow are “imperative” to ensure ranchers can replenish their water supplies, and to prevent similar dry conditions like those seen this past spring, Hawkwood said.
“We need quite a bit of snow to replenish the slews and the wet riparian areas, not only for the livestock industry, but also for the wildlife that depend on these water sources too.”
