MPs returned to Parliament Hill this week after a summer break that was preceded by a short spring sitting.
April’s election saw Canadians elect a slim Liberal minority government — the sixth minority government in the past two decades — meaning parties will need to co-operate to pass legislation.
The spring sitting saw the Liberals and Conservatives (and the other opposition parties, in some cases) work together to pass some key pieces of legislation.
But it’s not clear that that level of co-operation between the two major parties will continue.
The biggest item on the agenda in the coming weeks is the budget in early November. Because it is a confidence vote, the government will fall if it doesn’t pass and Canada would likely be headed to the polls again.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has indicated he is waiting to see the numbers before deciding how to vote on the budget, but he has decried government spending.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney has said the budget deficit will be bigger than last year, meaning he is likely going to need the support of at least one of the other opposition parties.
Here’s how the votes need to fall for legislation to pass in the House.
If the Liberals and Conservatives agree on an issue, it is a foregone conclusion that it will pass in the House.
Combined, the two parties have 312 votes, more than ten times the others combined.
During the spring sitting, the two major parties showed how they could essentially sideline the others to pass a bill quickly.
For example, the Liberals’ major projects legislation — backed by the Conservatives — moved through the House in less than a month.
The Conservatives’ support not only enabled its passage, but both parties voted together on procedural motions to ensure it passed before summer.
The Liberals, only a few seats shy of a majority, could also seek to woo one of the smaller opposition parties.
Both the Bloc Québécois and the NDP have enough seats to hold some leverage.
Combined, the Liberals and Bloc have 190 seats, which would outvote the Conservatives, NDP and Greens.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has said he is willing to work with other parties if it’s in the interest of Quebec.
Despite having lost recognized party status in the House, the NDP still has some leverage with just seven seats.
If they support Liberal legislation, those two parties could outvote the others 175 to 167.
Don Davies, the party’s interim leader, has raised concerns about potential cuts in the upcoming budget.
It remains to be seen how the party will vote in November, but the NDP is likely not looking to bring down the government while in the throes of a leadership search.
It’s possible the opposition parties could band together to outvote the Liberals on certain issues.
If the Conservatives, Bloc and NDP all agree on a piece of legislation, their combined 173 votes would be enough to make the governing Liberals a non-factor.
Opposition MPs are allowed to introduce their own legislation, but not bills that would impact the federal coffers.
Given the ideological differences between the three, it’s not likely that they could agree on a single issue to push a piece of legislation that originated from the opposition benches.
MPs aren’t required to vote on every item before the House, and can opt to abstain.
As has happened several times, parties sometimes abstain from a confidence vote if they don’t want to support the government but also don’t want to force an election.
If the Bloc caucus opts out of a vote, the Liberals would still have enough seats to outvote the remaining opposition parties — 168 to 152.
The Liberals would likely still win a vote if the NDP abstains, though it would be close. They have just one seat more than the Conservatives, Bloc and Greens combined.
But things will get tricky once some Liberals start vacating their seats.
Former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland is expected to step down as an MP at some point. Former Trudeau-era cabinet ministers Bill Blair and Jonathan Wilkinson are also being considered for diplomatic posts, according to sources.
While all three are in safe Liberal ridings, they need to officially resign before a byelection is called. In the meantime, the Liberals would be short a seat or three — depending on the timing of their departures.
If the NDP abstains and the remaining opposition parties vote together, the Liberals would likely still be able to win a House vote if they were down one MP, but not two.
The Conservatives, Bloc and Greens’ 167 votes would be enough to tie the Liberals who have lost one MP. But in the case of a tie, the Speaker must vote.
And according to the House’s official guide to practice and procedure, the Speaker “normally votes to maintain the status quo,” including “preserving the possibility that the matter might somehow be brought back in the future and be decided by a majority of the House.”
But with two or three MPs missing, the Liberals would lose a vote if the NDP abstains and the three remaining parties vote together.
All the above scenarios assume that votes are whipped, meaning MPs are rallied by their party’s leadership to vote as a block.
But in some circumstances parties allow for a “free vote,” when MPs are allowed to vote their conscience. In such cases, whether that bill or motion passes will depend on individual MPs.
In rare cases, the House can opt out of having a recorded vote and simply allow a bill or motion to pass “on division.” This essentially means that MPs agree to disagree but don’t feel the need to vote on an issue. Such was the case with the Liberal’s throne speech earlier this year.
An opposition party could also play a bit of a numbers game if they want to have their dissent recorded on a vote. Rather than have the entire caucus abstain, a party could theoretically have enough MPs show up to vote against the government in a confidence scenario while enough of their MPs sit it out so as not to trigger an election.
