U.S. President Donald Trump spoke more positively about Canada on Tuesday than he has at any time since winning the election last November, but whether that signals any imminent relief to punishing tariffs remains to be seen.
During a 32-minute appearance in the Oval Office with Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump talked of “mutual love” between the two countries, acknowledged Canada’s work in tackling fentanyl and praised Carney as a “very strong, very good leader.”
Clearly, those are just words and don’t equate to an actual change in policy.
Yet in comparison with his previous tirades against Canada as being unfair to the U.S. on trade, his stubborn insistence that his country doesn’t need any of Canada’s major exports, and his frequent straight-faced calls for Canada to become the 51st state, Trump’s approach toward his northern neighbour this time seemed almost warm.
Kelly Ann Shaw, a senior trade adviser to Trump during his first term, saw encouraging signs in the exchanges between Trump and Carney during the open-to-reporters portion of their meeting.
“I spent a lot of time with the president in his meetings with world leaders, frankly heard him talking very openly about the dynamic with the previous prime minister, and this was as positive of a tone as I’ve seen him take with anyone,” Shaw told CBC News.
‘I think they will be very happy’ says Trump on potential deal with Canada
Flavio Volpe, the Canadian president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association and a fierce critic of Trump’s trade war, also noticed the shift.
“He spoke differently about Canada,” said Volpe. “He did appear to be, maybe subconsciously, elevating the status of Canada as a competitor.”
On the auto sector specifically, Trump struck a more moderate tone than he has over the past nine months. While describing Canada and the U.S. as competing in the auto market, he appeared to suggest the industry’s success is of mutual interest to both countries.
“It’s a tough situation because we want to make our cars here,” Trump said. “At the same time, we want Canada to do well making cars. So we’re working on formulas, and I think we’ll get there.”
Whether and when they’ll actually “get there” remain huge questions. A shift in Trump’s tone without a shift in his tariffs means nothing to Canada’s struggling auto, steel, aluminum and lumber industries.
Still, Trump hinted that something is in the works.
Carney is a ‘world-class leader’: Trump
Asked whether Canada will be walking away empty-handed from Tuesday’s visit, Trump responded: “We have a lot of things that we’re working on… I think they’re going to walk away very happy.”
Trump’s praise for Carney in the meeting was effusive, bordering on lavish.
“I can tell you this, because I deal with lots of leaders all over the world, he’s a world-class leader,” said Trump. “He’s a good man. He does a great job, but he’s a tough negotiator.”
He continued: “I think he’s a great prime minister. I mean, he could represent me anytime.”
Carney responded to that by making a scribbling gesture with his right hand and telling reporters: “Write that down.”
It’s both easy and risky to make too much out of the personal relationship between two world leaders as it appears in front of the cameras.
However, experts who watch Trump closely have observed that personal relationships matter a great deal to him and actually influence his political thinking.
“The president tends to be very relational, and there tends to be more progress in relationships when there’s genuine chemistry,” said Shaw.
She says it’s preferable from Trump’s perspective to get along with Carney and says the prime minister is smart to try to cultivate that.
“I think that things are trending in the right direction, they just take time,” said Shaw.
Some possible evidence of that trend: the closed-doors portion of the meeting concluded with Trump and Carney “directing” their cabinet members “to quickly land deals” focused on steel, aluminum and energy, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters on Tuesday afternoon.
LeBlanc said he and the rest of the Canadian trade team are staying in Washington for those talks, which he said could begin as soon as this evening.
While no one — including LeBlanc — is predicting the outcome with any certainty, it’s the first sign of movement on the steel and aluminum tariffs since Trump doubled them to 50 per cent in June.
