Conversations around XRP have grown louder in recent weeks as the cryptocurrency continues to trade around the $2.2 region while new Spot XRP ETFs continue to attract inflows across multiple issuers.
One voice in the community has attempted to explain why the market is unusually calm despite rising institutional demand. An XRP enthusiast known as Pumpius shared a detailed thread on X that breaks down the mechanics behind the new ETFs and why the real impact may still be ahead. His argument is that the current XRP price action does not yet reflect what is going on behind the scenes.
Why ETF Rules Create A Special Market Dynamic
Pumpius explained that the foundation of the entire setup is in one legal detail with fund managers. ETF fund managers are restricted from purchasing XRP directly from Ripple or from the escrow accounts that hold large reserves of the token. Every ETF must source XRP through open-market purchases, without private deals or wholesale arrangements.
The absence of direct acquisition forces institutional buyers into the same liquidity pool as retail and whales. With the new launch of XRP ETFs, and as demand continues to rise, the circulating supply is now the battleground, and this mechanical pressure is already visible in recent weeks as XRP trading volumes climbed while exchange supply began trending downward.
According to market trackers, XRP supply on major exchanges has declined steadily since the approval of the first Spot XRP ETFs, showing that the stress on available liquidity is not theoretical but active. Particularly, data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance’s XRP reserves are now at their lowest point in months, having dropped to 2.7 billion tokens this week.
Incoming Supply Squeeze For XRP
Another part of the explanation focuses on Ripple’s behavior regarding escrow releases. Although one billion XRP is unlocked each month, Ripple has repeatedly returned about 700 million to 800 million of these unlocked tokens back into escrow.
Ripple releases only what it considers necessary to maintain healthy liquidity in the ecosystem, and the company has avoided significant selling pressure since the ETF approvals.
According to Pumpius, this means the ecosystem is operating in a controlled balance where ETF issuers are absorbing a growing share of the circulating float, while Ripple keeps escrow output extremely conservative.
The result is a slow tightening of supply that’s happening behind the scenes and may not yet be visible in price action but can eventually cause what he called a structural supply shock. When this happens, XRP will not move slowly, but it will break price levels with impact.
Still speaking of what is happening behind the scenes, Ripple has been advancing several developments that could strengthen XRP’s long-term position. A recent example is Abu Dhabi’s financial regulator formally recognizing RLUSD as a fiat-referenced token.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
