Ethereum has retraced below the $3,200 level following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that initially sparked volatility across the crypto market. While many expected a stronger reaction from Ethereum, the asset instead slipped lower as traders reassessed the macro environment and the implications of a potential shift toward stagflation. Despite this pullback, on-chain data suggests that the underlying market structure may be quietly improving.
According to new insights from CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s Net Taker Volume (30-day moving average) is showing a clear upward trend in its lows. This metric tracks the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. Although ETH remains under selling pressure, the data reveals that the intensity of aggressive selling has been weakening steadily over the past several weeks. Each subsequent negative low is forming higher than the previous one, signaling that sellers are losing dominance.
While the broader sentiment remains cautious, subtle improvements in Net Taker Volume suggest that ETH’s current weakness may be masking the early stage of a larger structural shift.
Net Taker Volume Signals a Potential Structural Shift
According to CryptoQuant’s CoinCare, Ethereum may once again be approaching a pivotal turning point. The report highlights that a similar Net Taker Volume structure appeared earlier this year. After forming a clear bottom in January 2025, the metric began to trend upward—even while remaining in the negative zone—indicating that aggressive sellers were gradually losing strength.
By April, Net Taker Volume flipped decisively into positive territory. From that exact moment, Ethereum entered one of its strongest rallies of the cycle, surging more than 3x and printing a new all-time high.
Current conditions echo that same pattern. Since the peak of selling pressure in September, the market has continuously absorbed sell flows for nearly three months. Each negative low in Net Taker Volume has formed higher than the previous one, revealing improving market resilience despite the broader downtrend. If this trajectory holds, CoinCare estimates that a positive flip in Net Taker Volume may be only about a month away.
Historically, this transition from negative to positive has marked the beginning of Ethereum’s most explosive breakout phases. A confirmed move into positive territory would represent a high-probability trigger for the next expansion toward new all-time highs, signaling that momentum is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface.
ETH Weekly Structure Attempts a Recovery
Ethereum’s weekly chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after several weeks of volatility, with price currently trading near $3,195 following a strong rebound from the $2,800 zone. This area acted as a key demand region in mid-2024 and has once again provided support, preventing a deeper breakdown. The recent weekly candle reflects renewed buying interest, closing firmly above the 50-week moving average, a level that often defines medium-term trend direction.
Despite this rebound, ETH still faces structural challenges. The 100-week moving average — now overhead — has acted as resistance throughout the current downtrend, and the price rejected it again on the latest push toward $3,447. Until Ethereum can reclaim this dynamic resistance with conviction, the broader trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.
Volume also shows a notable shift: sell-side activity has been declining over the past month, while buyers are beginning to step in more aggressively at key support levels. This aligns with the improvement in on-chain metrics, suggesting weakening selling pressure.
For bulls, the next major objective is a weekly close above $3,400, which would signal a potential trend reversal. A failure to break this level, however, risks another retest of $2,900–$2,800, where market sentiment would again be tested.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
