As Bitcoin (BTC) tries to hold the $90,000 barrier, some analysts affirm that the flagship crypto’s bear market signals are becoming clearer, suggesting that a breakdown to new lows could be around the corner.
Bitcoin Bear Flag Raises Concerns
On Friday, Bitcoin shredded its Thursday gains, dropping 3.2% intraday to retest the $89,500-$90,500 support zone once again. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $84,500-$94,500 range for the past four weeks, briefly falling to a seven-month low of $80,600 during the late November correction.
This week, the flagship crypto’s price has seen more volatility, fueled by the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and positive regulatory developments in the US. However, BTC has failed to successfully break and hold above its local range’s upper boundary after multiple retests, ultimately falling to the mid-zone of its range.
Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted a concerning pattern on Bitcoin’s chart, warning that the cryptocurrency risks a drop to new multi-month lows if the price fails to hold key support levels.
Per the post, BTC has been forming a bear flag for nearly a month, which “is too hard to ignore” after the price continues to be rejected from the formation’s upper boundary. The analyst affirmed that this pattern follows a trend that has been developing over the past two months.
As he pointed out, bearish flags have been continuously forming on BTC’s chart since the October 10 market pullback, with each pattern resolving in a breakdown to lower levels. To Ted, the new formation signals “that the overall trend is still to the downside.”
He suggested that a close above the $96,000 level would invalidate the bearish pattern. On the contrary, a drop to below the $86,000 support, where the formation’s lower boundary is located, could push Bitcoin to the April lows, around the $76,000 mark.
Is The 2022 Playbook Repeating?
The market observer also noted a resemblance between the last cycle and the current one, which could lead to a drop below the $70,000 level. The chart shows that after losing the 50-Week EMA indications, Bitcoin consolidated within a bear flag before breaking down and descending to the 2022 lows.
Now, BTC displays a similar performance after losing the 50-Week EMA and breaking down from its October bear flag. “If this plays out, a pump to $100,000 and then a dump below $70,000” would follow, the analyst added.
Meanwhile, Robert Mercer shared a similar perspective in a series of X posts. The analyst affirmed that the classic four-year cycle has not changed despite the significant increase in institutional adoption:
Bitcoin is breaking crucial supports one by one and entering a bear market. The same happened back in the end of 2021. At the moment, BTC is forming an ascending channel with the top near $100,000 – $104,000, you can see a clear Right Shoulder of H&S in this move. Something similar happened in the beginning of 2022.
He also asserted that Bitcoin shows a similar picture “from the 1W MA50 perspective,” as BTC has traded below this indicator for multiple weeks now for the first time in the bullish cycle.
Nonetheless, he concluded that “no such breakdown happens without a retest,” forecasting a relief bounce up to $98,000-$102,000, followed by a dump to the support level of $55,000-$60,000.
As of this writing, BTC Trades at $89,990, a 2.75% decline in the daily timeframe.
