ONDO has lost over 65% of its value since October as heavy selling pressure continues to dominate the altcoin market. While Bitcoin has shown relative stability at key levels, many mid-cap tokens like ONDO have struggled to find consistent demand. This drawdown has pushed sentiment toward the bearish side, especially as traders remain cautious around liquidity events and token unlocks.
Still, some analysts argue that the current dip is not purely a sign of weakness. A CryptoQuant report explains that the headlines may scream “price drop,” but the on-chain data is pointing toward “opportunity” instead. The focus is now on ONDO’s massive 1.94 billion token unlock scheduled for January 18, 2026. Historically, unlocks can trigger panic selling, as investors anticipate higher circulating supply and additional distribution pressure.
However, this time may be different. The report suggests that larger market participants are actively positioning through the decline, using the fear as a liquidity window. Rather than treating the unlock as a reason to exit, the data hints that “smart money” is stepping in to absorb supply while retail confidence remains fragile. That sets the stage for a critical test.
Smart Money Absorption Signals Are Building
The CryptoQuant report outlines why larger investors appear to be ignoring the noise around ONDO’s decline. The first signal is the “whale shield.” Despite the sharp correction since the December 2024 peak, Spot Average Order Size continues to be dominated by “Big Whale Orders,” shown through consistent green dots on the chart. This implies institutions are using weakness to absorb liquidity, with the $0.35–$0.40 zone acting as a primary accumulation range.
Second, ONDO has officially entered a Taker Buy Dominant phase. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) remains positive and continues rising, showing that market buy pressure has outweighed market sells for months. This is important because takers represent aggressive participants who buy at the ask without waiting for better entries.
The report frames this alignment as “taker alpha.” When large whale orders and aggressive taker buying strengthen while the price falls, it often reflects absorption. If this continues through the unlock, ONDO could be building a coiled-spring setup for a 2026 RWA breakout.
ONDO Extends Downtrend as Bulls Defend Key Demand Zone
ONDO remains under heavy pressure after a prolonged decline that has erased most of its 2025 upside. The 3-day chart shows a clear breakdown from the former consolidation range near $0.90–$1.00, where price repeatedly failed to reclaim momentum during the second half of the year. Once sellers forced a decisive move lower, the market quickly transitioned into a steep downtrend marked by weak bounces and consistent lower highs.
At the time of writing, ONDO is trading near $0.33 after slipping below the $0.40 handle, a psychological level that previously acted as temporary support. This drop places the token deep below its key moving averages, with the shorter trend lines rolling over and acting as overhead resistance. The failed recovery attempts throughout late 2025 confirm that sellers have stayed in control, while buyers have struggled to generate enough volume to shift the trend.
However, price is now approaching a potential demand zone around $0.30–$0.35, where volatility historically increases and dip buyers may try to step in. If this area fails, the chart suggests downside could accelerate. Still, a strong defense could open the door for a stabilization phase before any meaningful rebound.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
