Alberta’s population could surpass British Columbia’s as early as 2038: StatsCan

Alberta could overtake British Columbia as Canada’s third most populated province in just over a decade, according to new projections released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday.

The agency conducted 10 projection scenarios for Canada’s population. In nine of them, Alberta’s population surpasses British Columbia’s by 2050.

Statistics Canada demographer Jonathan Chagnon said it could happen as early as 2038.

“With what we’re seeing currently, if the trends continue, this is what will happen. But politics can change things, especially when we’re talking about immigration,” said Chagnon.

In many scenarios, Alberta is the province with the fastest growth.

Its population is projected to hit between 6.5 million and 8.1 million by 2050.

The chief economist of ATB Financial isn’t surprised by the numbers. Mark Parsons said two main factors play into that growth: interprovincial migration and births exceeding deaths.

“Alberta has this demographic dividend. It has a younger population just by virtue of having so many people move here, and migrants tend to be young. So if they stay and raise their families here, that just keeps Alberta’s population younger than everyone else’s,” said Parsons.

That’s important for the economy, said Parsons, since many baby boomers are retiring.

“That provides Alberta with an advantage, with a more youthful population, and more people staying in the workforce and contributing to the economy.”

There will be challenges, however. Parsons said although the growth is expected to be slower than the rapid population increases Alberta has seen in recent years, it will still put pressure on infrastructure, schools and employment.

Alberta’s building industry, though, is confident it can keep up — with some help from municipal and provincial governments.

“The biggest thing out of the gate is making sure we’re providing enough land for growth,” said Scott Fash, CEO of BILD Alberta.

He said over the past five years, many municipalities in Alberta that didn’t have land available for new growth have struggled.

“We saw that in the early stages with Calgary specifically. They didn’t have enough new communities approved when the first housing boom hit in 2022. And that lag effect led to a lack of supply and a significant increase in the price of housing,” said Fash.

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Fash said so far, the population growth in Alberta has mainly affected its largest cities: Calgary and Edmonton. Moving forward, he said it’s important governments and the industry turn their focus elsewhere.

“We need to also be looking at — while we have a bit of time, take a bit of a breath — how do we support some of these mid-sized cities to capture some of that population, which eases pressure on our two largest centres?”