On-chain data from Glassnode has unveiled the reason why the XRP price has been in a persistent downtrend since 2025. Notably, the XRP price crashed from its high above $3 last year and has been falling ever since. While many in the crypto space believed XRP could eventually reclaim the $3 level, the cryptocurrency has continued to struggle, shedding more gains each month amid broader market weakness and a shift in sentiment.
Why The XRP Price Has Been Declining Since 2025
Glassnode has attributed XRP’s prolonged price correction since 2025 to a shift in investor behavior driven by weakening on-chain profitability and rising losses among holders. According to the data, XRP fell below the aggregate holder cost basis, which represents the average price at which current investors acquired their tokens.
When a cryptocurrency trades below this level, a large portion of holders are technically underwater, meaning they are holding at a loss. This condition often leads to panic selling as investors attempt to limit further losses, increasing selling pressure on the asset and reinforcing the price downtrend.
A key indicator supporting this view is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), measured using a seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The SOPR tracks whether coins being moved or sold on the blockchain are being done so at a profit or a loss. Glassnode’s chart shows that XRP’s SOPR declined from about 1.6 in July 2025 to around 0.96 recently.
Notably, a value above 1 indicates that holders are selling at a profit, while a value below that signals that coins are being sold at a loss. This sustained move below the neutral level suggests that most selling activity in XRP is now occurring at a loss rather than in profit-taking conditions.
As a result, on-chain profitability for XRP holders has turned negative. Such an environment usually weakens investors’ confidence in a cryptocurrency and reduces the incentive to hold it, especially among short-term traders. Negative profitability can also discourage new capital inflows, as prospective buyers see limited signs of recovery or momentum, further contributing to price decline or stagnation.
XRP Structure Mirrors Bearish 2022 Setup
Interestingly, Glassnode noted that XRP’s current market structure closely resembles a period between September 2021 and May 2022. During that earlier phase, XRP’s SOPR also fell below 1 and remained there for a long time.
The period was also marked by prolonged consolidation and low volatility following sharp declines, before the market eventually stabilized. This comparison suggests that XRP may be experiencing a similar structural phase in which losses dominate trading activity and recovery is delayed until selling pressure eases and sentiment moves back to positive territory.
As of writing, the XRP price has declined even further, now trading under $1.4. CoinMarketCap data shows that the cryptocurrency has plummeted by more than 4.3% over the past 24 hours and by well over 46% year to date.
