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Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has dropped to 1.1, bringing it closer to the undervalued zone than at any point since 2020. CryptoQuant analyst DanCoinInvestor shared the data, noting that BTC is now just a step away from a level that has kicked off major rallies in every past cycle.
When the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is considered undervalued. The last three times this happened, around 2015, 2019, and 2020, strong recoveries followed within months. BTC has been sliding for four months straight since hitting its all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025.
This Cycle Didn’t Follow the Usual Script
Here’s what makes this time worth watching closely. DanCoinInvestor pointed out that Bitcoin never spiked into a clearly overvalued zone during the recent bull run, unlike every previous cycle. That changes things.
If the top was weaker than usual, the bottom might play out differently too.
“The current decline may also differ from past market bottoms, and it appears necessary to respond with this possibility in mind,” the analyst said.
Bitcoin Records $2.3B in Realized Losses
Separately, CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech reported that Bitcoin has recorded $2.3 billion in realized losses over a seven-day average. That puts this sell-off among the top three to five loss events in Bitcoin’s entire history, right alongside the Luna and FTX crashes of 2022.
Also Read: Crypto Is Not in a Bear Market, Claims Tom Lee as Ethereum Activity Jumps 115%
BTC is currently trading around $68,283 after briefly dipping to $60,000 earlier this month. CryptoQuant flagged $55,000 as Bitcoin’s realized price, a level where bear markets have historically bottomed out.
In past cycles, BTC traded 24% to 30% below that mark before finding a floor.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
IT Tech warned that while extreme loss spikes have triggered rebounds before, relief rallies also show up during extended downturns. Nick Ruck from LVRG Research placed potential support between $40,000 and $60,000 depending on how conditions develop.
Ruck added that confirming a real bottom would need sustained institutional buying or miner stabilization beyond the current wave of distressed selling.
