The market for XRP ETFs has already secured full approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with six products now managing more than $1 billion in combined assets. Yet one major player remains absent: BlackRock.
According to Canary Capital Chief Executive Officer Steven McClurg, that may not last forever. He believes the world’s largest asset manager could file for a spot XRP ETF by late 2026 or early 2027, assuming current trends continue.
XRP ETF Assets Must Hit $3B Before BlackRock Moves
As noted by market expert Sam Daodu in a Tuesday report, assets in XRP-linked ETFs climbed to a peak of $1.6 billion in January before experiencing approximately $500 million in outflows, bringing total assets back to around $1 billion.
According to McClurg’s outlook, BlackRock is unlikely to move unless certain market signals become undeniable. One of the clearest indicators would be sustained growth in existing XRP ETF assets.
While assets peaked at $1.6 billion in January 2026 and have since settled near $1 billion, a rise toward $3 billion or more would demonstrate robust and durable demand.
Canary’s CEO asserts that BlackRock pays close attention to market capitalization and investor appetite. If current XRP ETFs were to triple in size, the commercial rationale for launching a competing product would become far more compelling.
Competitive dynamics could also accelerate the timeline. BlackRock is not typically the first to enter a new segment, but it rarely allows rivals to dominate uncontested.
McClurg noted that it may not be long before BlackRock feels pressure to respond if another large firm files for a spot XRP ETF. A rival’s move could force BlackRock’s hand sooner than its current projected window.
Perhaps the most decisive factor would be demand from institutional clients. If state pension funds, university endowments or sovereign wealth funds begin allocating XRP within their approved asset classes, that shift would likely serve as a clear signal.
Ripple Connection
Notably, BlackRock’s relationship with Ripple’s broader ecosystem may already be closer than many assume. The firm’s tokenized treasury fund, BUIDL, utilizes Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral.
That integration suggests a degree of familiarity and comfort with Ripple-linked infrastructure, even in the absence of an XRP ETF. Such ties could potentially shorten the distance between monitoring the market and formally entering it, should demand accelerate.
For now, BlackRock remains on the sidelines of the XRP ETF space. Whether it steps in by late 2026, in 2027, or further down the road will likely depend on one central factor: whether institutional demand grows strong enough to make staying out the greater risk.
As of this writing, XRP was trading at $1.34, marking an 8% drop over the past week.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
