Ford’s fight against Trump enters tougher phase as Ontario faces job losses and trade uncertainty

A year after winning a third-straight majority government on a pledge to “protect Ontario” from U.S. tariffs, the fight against Donald Trump continues to fuel Doug Ford’s policy and politics. 

And experts watching the province’s struggling economy say the year ahead may prove even more challenging for the Ford government as key trade talks between the U.S. and Canada unfold.

When Ford was re-elected one year ago, the premier cast himself in the role of “Captain Canada,” aggressively pushing back against Trump and his tariff threats. Fast forward a year, and Trump remains a key focus for the premier, never far from conversation during his media appearances.

“How can one person, one man, create so much turmoil around the world?” Ford said of Trump during a news conference this week at Queen’s Park. “It is pretty staggering.” 

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Trump’s punishing tariffs have resulted in thousands of layoffs in Ontario’s trade-dependent economy, taking a larger toll on the auto, steel and aluminum industries. Between the second and third quarters of 2025, Ontario shed nearly 40,000 jobs, largely because of the trade war.

The province’s unemployment rate, which was already creeping up before Trump was elected, rose to 7.8 per cent last year, according to the latest report from the province’s independent fiscal watchdog. 

Last spring, the Ford government created a six-month deferral of about $9 billion in provincially administered business taxes and rebated $2 billion of Workplace Safety and Insurance Board premiums to employers. It also announced a $70 million retraining fund for workers impacted by the trade war.

That plan received a positive grade from the CEO of Ontario’s Chamber of Commerce, Daniel Tisch, who called the province’s work “serious” and “meaningful”.

“Those sorts of initiatives have been really valuable short-term measures,” said Tisch.

“The tricky balance is also investing in the long-term.” 

The province has also shifted its focus to eliminating interprovincial trade barriers and expediting approvals for major mining and energy projects in a bid to bolster the economy. 

Ontario’s former chief economist, Brian Lewis, said the province’s economy has taken a hit, but has been more resilient than expected in the face of the tariffs. He called the Ford government’s response package “reasonable,” and similar to its approach during the early days of COVID-19 lockdowns. 

“Borrowing on the pandemic playbook, something that they knew how to implement, probably had a pretty useful impact on companies,” said Lewis, who is now a senior fellow and sessional lecturer at the Munk School for Global Affairs and Public Policy.

But those measures take a toll on the province’s finances, he added.

“Elbows up costs money,” Lewis said. “It takes away your choices, or it makes things more expensive for people, if you’re going to fight back on trade.” 

Ford has struck a provocative tone towards the mercurial U.S. president. He frequently appears in U.S. media and has spent millions on taxpayer-funded advertising to hit back at Trump. 

Experts say both have had mixed results.

Ford’s early political break from his support from Trump was key, said conservative strategist Mitch Heimpel. For years, the premier had made no secret of his admiration for Trump, and Ontario voters often associated the pair up to that point, he said. 

“I remember knocking on doors in 2018, there were a lot of voters that were far too casual making comparisons between the premier and President Trump,” he said, adding that the comparison doesn’t hold when it comes to their personalities.

“What I think the premier did, very smartly, by drawing contrasts early, by sharpening his rhetoric early, by framing the ballot question early, was make those comparisons impossible going forward,” said Heimpel.

York University political science professor Zac Spicer said Ford’s tough talk played well with frustrated voters a year ago, tapping into anger many Canadians feel towards Trump.

“A lot of people wanted to say exactly what Doug Ford was saying,” Spicer said. 

But McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe said some of Ford’s pushback against Trump has backfired.

While Ford has upheld a ban on American booze on LCBO shelves, he backed down on the electricity export surcharge to some American states. And Trump has blamed one of Ontario’s anti-tariff advertisements which features the voice of former president Ronald Reagan for the cancellation of trade talks between the two countries.

“Perhaps what he’s done is undermine some of the negotiations with the United States by grandstanding,” Graefe said. 

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While Ford has said he will leave the CUSMA negotiations to the federal government, that doesn’t mean he will stay on the sidelines.

The premier said this week he’ll attend two meetings with U.S. governors this spring to make Ontario’s case for a continued free trade agreement between the two countries. 

Tisch said Canada’s relationship with the U.S. has fundamentally changed. Both the federal and provincial governments have no choice but to seek out new trade partners while still extending a hand to the U.S. as the CUSMA talks take place later this year, he said.

“There’s a lot of anxiety in the business community about the renewal of the Canada, U.S., Mexico agreement,” he said. “But I think there is a path forward to get to a deal.”

Heimpel said he expects Ford will try to focus less on the negotiations, and more on domestic economic policies.

“How do we develop policy that stretches across the entire Ontario economy, that makes us more productive, that makes us more self-reliant?” he said of the questions facing the government.

At the provincial level, Lewis said in addition to the government’s focus on big infrastructure projects and building up the skilled trades, he’d like to see a deeper commitment to the education system.

“It’s basically an investment in our long-term sustainable economy,” he said.

When it comes to Ford’s rhetorical campaign against Trump, Spicer wonders if it may be reaching its limits

“None of the problems that Ontario has have really gone away,” Spicer said. “People still have concerns about the cost of living … the state of education, health care, public services. Those concerns are still there.”