The recent Bitcoin price rebound has reignited optimism, but not everyone is convinced the market has turned around. While price has shown signs of a breakout, a crypto analyst notes that BTC’s macro setup still resembles a typical bear market structure. The key question remains whether the recent upside move signals a true price bottom or simply another temporary rally before further downside.
Why The Bitcoin Price Breakout Is Not A Bullish Reversal
In an X post on Tuesday, March 17, crypto analyst Ardi argued that traders are misinterpreting Bitcoin’s recent rally above $75,000 by assuming that any breakout automatically signals the end of a bear market. He explained that these types of price spikes are part of how bear markets typically function.
The analyst noted that breakouts usually form macro lower highs during a downtrend. He emphasized that these price rallies can appear strong at first, but they usually don’t last and tend to set the stage for the next downward move.
Backing this up, Ardi pointed to Bitcoin’s price action in 2018 and 2022 as a clear example. After reaching all-time highs in both years, the market entered a steady decline, creating a series of lower highs. He noted that in both bear market cycles, there were approximately five relief rallies.
Sharing a chart showing Bitcoin’s rebounds during the 2022 bear market, the analyst showed that the cryptocurrency experienced sharp spikes in January, April, June, August, and November. Each of these rebounds had temporarily pushed the price up, but none reversed the overall downtrend. He added that at every bounce, selling pressure returned, driving the market even lower.
Ardi noted that this recent spike is the first bounce Bitcoin has experienced in five months, so its timing is not unexpected. He also highlighted that many traders have already adjusted their outlook, closing bearish positions after just one green run. In his view, this reaction shows a lack of a well-grounded trading thesis.
Analyst Reveals What Actually Confirms A Bottom
When asked about the basis for his bearish outlook, Ardi rejected the idea that Bitcoin’s behavior is only tied to the four-year cycle theory. The analyst said that bear markets are not dependent on this cyclical concept and would exist regardless of the narrative. He emphasized that market structure and time-based patterns carry more weight.
Ardi explained that a typical market includes roughly three years of upward movement, followed by a shorter phase of decline or consolidation. This period generally lasts 9 to 12 months and is characterized by lower volatility and sideways price action. During this period, the market develops the conditions necessary for a longer-term reversal.
The crypto analyst also outlined specific levels that Bitcoin would need to reclaim before he would consider a bottom and a subsequent bullish shift. He noted that the cryptocurrency would have to move above $85,000 and then surpass $96,000 by more than 3% to indicate a genuine change in momentum.
Without meeting at least one of these conditions, he believes the market has not provided enough evidence to support a sustained upward move. Until that happens, Ardi maintains that Bitcoin’s price bounce does not confirm a market bottom. The 2022 bear market chart demonstrates that multiple rallies can occur within a broader downtrend, and that short-term strength alone isn’t enough to signal a lasting price reversal.
