XRP is trading below the $1.40 level as selling pressure continues to weigh on the market, reflecting a broader environment of uncertainty and weakening momentum. After failing to sustain recent recovery attempts, price action has turned more defensive, with traders increasingly cautious amid persistent downside risk.
Beyond price, derivatives data is highlighting a deeper structural shift. According to CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, the Open Interest indicator on Binance shows a sharp contraction in the volume of active contracts, aligning with XRP’s subdued price performance. This suggests that market participants are reducing exposure rather than building new positions.
Open interest has dropped to approximately $372.6 million, marking its lowest level since 2024. The magnitude of this decline is significant. During previous expansion phases, open interest reached substantially higher levels, reflecting strong participation and elevated leverage. In contrast, the current environment points to a clear outflow of liquidity from the derivatives market.
This reduction in open interest indicates a meaningful decline in leverage usage among both speculators and larger players. While this type of deleveraging can reduce systemic risk, it also signals diminished conviction, as fewer participants are willing to take directional bets in the current market structure.
XRP Deleveraging Reflects Structural Reset in Market Positioning
Arab Chain further contextualizes the current market structure by comparing present conditions to prior expansion phases. During periods of strong upward momentum, XRP open interest surged to over $1.7 billion, particularly when price traded above the $3 level. The contrast with today’s reading—near $372.6 million—is substantial and reflects a clear contraction in market participation and risk appetite.
This divergence highlights a fundamental shift. Where previous rallies were supported by aggressive leverage and speculative positioning, the current environment is characterized by reduced exposure and cautious capital deployment. The decline in open interest is not occurring in isolation. XRP’s price, now hovering around $1.40, has also retraced from recent highs, reinforcing the correlation between falling price and diminishing derivatives activity.
Structurally, this alignment suggests the market is undergoing a deleveraging phase, where leveraged positions are being unwound. This process can result from forced liquidations during volatility or voluntary exits as traders reduce risk amid uncertainty.
Importantly, declining open interest is not inherently bearish. In many cases, it represents a healthy reset after periods of excessive leverage. By clearing out overextended positions, the market creates conditions for more sustainable price action, either through gradual accumulation or consolidation before the next directional move.
XRP Remains in Downtrend as $1.40 Resistance Caps Recovery
XRP is currently trading near the $1.35–$1.40 range, consolidating after a sharp decline that unfolded through early 2026. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the asset remains in a well-established downtrend across the observed timeframe.
From a technical standpoint, XRP continues to trade below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. This alignment reflects sustained bearish momentum and suggests that any short-term recovery attempts are likely corrective rather than indicative of a structural reversal.
The recent bounce from sub-$1.30 levels lacks conviction. Price briefly pushed higher but faced rejection near the short-term moving average, indicating that selling pressure remains active on rallies. Additionally, volume spikes during the sharp drop in February point to capitulation-driven selling, while the subsequent consolidation phase shows reduced participation, signaling weak demand.
In the near term, the $1.40 level acts as immediate resistance, with a stronger barrier forming around $1.60. On the downside, the $1.25–$1.30 zone remains critical support. A breakdown below this region could trigger further losses, while a sustained reclaim of $1.40 would be required to signal the first signs of stabilization.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
