Federal Liberals are throwing all they can at the Quebec riding of Terrebonne ahead of Monday’s byelection, sending more than 25 MPs and members of cabinet in recent weeks to pound the pavement in what one minister is calling a “consequential” race.
“We can get a lot done when we have a government that’s focused and supported with a majority,” Housing Minister Gregor Robertson said as he was doorknocking alongside Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste in the off-island Montreal suburb last week.
Robertson pointed to government bills stalling at committees, where opposition parties together hold the majority of seats.
“We see it in the States, when Congress can’t get budget bills passed and everything gets stuck for months and there’s all kinds of problems. We haven’t typically had that problem in Canada; we’ve had [this] in recent years with minority governments,” he said.
“We can get much more done as a country with a functional Parliament, and having one vote decide it means every vote counts.”
The Liberals flipped the historically Bloc Québécois riding of Terrebonne last year, winning the seat by just one vote. Those results were overturned by the Supreme Court after Bloc candidate and former MP Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné mounted a legal challenge following revelations that at least one Bloc voter was unable to have her vote counted when her mail-in ballot was returned following an Elections Canada error.
One year later, voters in the hotly contested riding aren’t just choosing who will represent them in the House of Commons — they could also grant or deny the Liberals more power in Parliament.
“The Liberals might enjoy a majority government without winning Terrebonne,” said Jean-François Daoust, a political science professor at the University of Sherbrooke. “But concretely, the Liberal government would need one extra vote … to get their projects voted quite easily without much worry about the opposition voting against them.”
If the Liberals win Terrebonne on Monday, alongside the two Toronto seats previously held by former cabinet ministers Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, they will hold 173 seats in the House of Commons — gaining that extra vote to pass legislation and update committees to reflect their majority.
“So the stakes are quite high for the Liberal government,” said Daoust. “But the stakes are also quite high politically for the Bloc Québécois.”
Daoust said that if the Bloc cannot win a riding they’ve held in the past, one where more than 90 per cent of residents are francophones, it could spell trouble for the party while cementing the notion that Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals are seeing heightened popularity.
At the same time, Daoust noted a key opportunity for the Bloquistes when it comes to courting voters.
“The Bloc Québécois has a great pitch here, because its core objective [is] to defend Quebec interests, and it is better placed to do so when it has what we call the balance of power … when the Liberals [do not] enjoy a concrete, clear majority, and need to negotiate with at least one opposition party.”
At a stop in Terrebonne last month, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet was asked by reporters about the prospect of Liberals gaining more power.
“The main argument for the Liberals is to say, ‘Vote for us, there will be no more elections.’ What the hell is that? How cold is such a way to think and build a strategy?” he said during one of several visits he and other Bloc MPs have made in the riding.
“People of Terrebonne will have the possibility to vote according their own specific values, convictions and interests, and in that regard, we are so much closer to them than any Liberal in the world.”
Some voters in Terrebonne were indifferent about the prospect of their ballot having an impact on the Liberals’ fortunes.
“I really vote with my convictions, so doesn’t matter if [Carney gets a] minority or majority. I don’t care,” said resident Dominique Lefebvre, who did not vote in last year’s election but confirmed she plans to vote this time around in Terrebonne.
Others explained that a potentially stronger majority for the Liberals and Carney was a key factor in deciding where to park their support.
“Yes, he needs that,” said Gaetane Pelltier, who voted Liberal last time and plans to do so again.
“Last time, was too bad — only one vote, you know — so that’s very important [everybody] goes and votes.”
Elections Canada shared Tuesday that an estimated 18,200 voters in Terrebonne showed up at advance polls over the weekend, equal to about one-fifth of residents who were registered to vote in the 2025 election.
