While Ethereum (ETH) retests a key level for the first time this month, some market watchers have advised caution, warning that the start of a new bull run may not be here yet.
No Ethereum Party Until This happens
After jumping nearly 10%, Ethereum is attempting to reclaim a crucial area that has served as a major resistance zone since the early February crash. Over the past two months, the King of Altcoins has been trading sideways, hovering between the $1,800-$2,200 levels.
As the altcoin breaks past the $2,150-$2,200 area, some market observers cautioned investors not to celebrate yet, arguing that ETH has failed to hold this level despite multiple retests during this period.
Analyst Ted Pillows affirmed that as long as Ethereum holds above the $2,200 level, it could make a move towards last month’s top, around the $2,400 area, but warned investors not to “mistake it for the start of a bull run,” suggesting that new lows will come between Q2 and Q3 2026.
Similarly, market watcher Crypto Scient advised investors not to “confuse positioning with guessing,” explaining that the cryptocurrency hasn’t broken out of its macro downtrend, which began last October.
According to the chart, Ethereum is currently near the macro trend resistance while still respecting a Lower High (LH) structure. To him, this is “where most people front-run and get chopped.”
Scient argued that even if the bottom is on and ETH’s bull run has begun, “the money won’t be made under this trend. It will be made once the price is above it.”
Nonetheless, the price needs to break above the trend, flip it into support, and show acceptance above it before investors can call a true reversal. “Until that happens, this is just another retest in a downtrend,” he asserted.
Key Levels To Watch
Ali Martinez shared “the ultimate accumulation zones” for Ethereum, outlining some potential scenarios for its price. In the first case, the cryptocurrency could be trading in a multi-year ascending triangle, with the $1,800 level being the “line in the sand.”
As he explained, this price point serves as the triangle’s hypotenuse and, if it holds, could trigger a rally toward the $4,900 x-axis. This level also aligns “almost perfectly” with the 0.80 MVRV Pricing Band, located around the $1,880 area.
The 0.80 band “has been a reliable indicator of cycle bottoms,” as it has historically marked where sellers exhaust themselves, and “Strong Hands” take over, Martinez highlighted.
Meanwhile, in the second scenario, Ethereum could be moving within a parallel channel, risking another 30%-50% correction toward the channel lows between $1,150-$1,170. Martinez emphasized that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) reveals massive clusters of ETH were bought between $2,079 and $1,882.
The URPD also shows that below $1,880, the most significant buy-walls sit at $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089, meaning that if the February lows are lost, the price would visit those levels.
“While accumulation happens in the $1,000s, the ‘Start Engine’ for the next major rally is the Realized Price at $2,500,” the analyst noted, adding that whenever Ethereum reclaims its Realized Price, it has historically signified that the average holder is back in profit and the “cooling period” has finalized.
“A clean break and hold above $2,500 is my primary trigger for the beginning of a new macro bull rally,” Martinez concluded.
