Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Over? Two Analyses, Two Very Different Answers

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Bitcoin is trading at $74,025. Half the market sees a buying opportunity. The other half sees a temporary stop on the way to $30,000.

Both sides have real data behind them.

The Bear Case: The Bottom Is Not Here Yet

CryptoQuant published analysis this week showing Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has not entered negative territory. Every single bear market bottom in Bitcoin’s history has required it to go below zero. Right now it sits at 0.5.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen put out a realistic bear framework on April 12 pointing to a 70% correction from the $126,000 October peak – implying a potential floor around $37,000-$38,000. CryptoQuant’s own target: $55,000-$60,000 by December 2026, followed by a two-year accumulation phase before the next halving cycle.

Their argument is simple. The bear market has not finished its job yet.

The Bull Case: The Debt Math Changes Everything

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe published a different framework today.

His sigma analysis of every Bitcoin cycle shows bull markets and bear markets are getting weaker symmetrically. The 2024/2025 bull peaked at just +1.5 sigma. The bear has already hit -1.5 sigma – the proportional level that historically marks the end of the correction.

“The sigma-debt has already been paid off in the recent correction,” he wrote. The $30,000 thesis, he argues, applies the wrong historical framework to a cycle that has already structurally changed.

Twelve months after reaching this sigma level, Bitcoin has historically averaged gains of 100-140%.

James Lavish, co-manager of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and a 30-year Wall Street veteran, made a separate case entirely on Milk Road.

His argument has nothing to do with charts. The US carries $39 trillion in debt heading toward $100 trillion by the mid-2030s. There are four ways to manage it – cut spending, raise taxes, default, or print money.

“They have no choice but to come in with fire hoses of liquidity,” Lavish said.

More money in the system means higher asset prices. It always has. He expects Bitcoin near $125,000 by year end and $150,000 next year.

What the Market Is Doing Right Now

Bitcoin sits at $74,025, down 0.25% in 24 hours. The altcoin fear and greed index has been below 10 for longer than any period in history.

Two analytical frameworks. Two completely different conclusions. The data is real on both sides – which makes the next move matter more than most.