Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent rebound has already made headlines, but the latest swings are making one question impossible to ignore: Is the April rally running out of steam, or is it simply taking a breather before the next push higher?
After clearing the $78,000 level for the first time in more than two months last Friday, BTC has since traded with noticeable turbulence, slipping back to just above $76,000 by Monday amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
Why BTC’s Direction Hinges On Wednesday
In his latest analysis, market expert Sam Daodu points to a rapidly shifting situation in the Middle East—one that has been driving risk sentiment in short bursts and amplifying volatility in crypto markets.
According to the report, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, less than 24 hours after reopening it, then walked away from the second round of peace talks in Islamabad, as one of the main reasons behind Sunday’s drop to around $73,000.
The timing now centers on Wednesday. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and at the moment, there’s no replacement deal in sight. In Daodu’s view, that makes Wednesday essentially the decisive day for Bitcoin’s direction for the rest of April.
He lays out two main pathways. If the ceasefire is extended or new talks are announced, he expects oil prices to fall toward $90.
In that scenario, Daodu argues Bitcoin could work its way back toward $78,000. He also adds that if the CLARITY Act markup gets scheduled before the end of the month, a move toward $80,000 would be realistic by April’s close.
On the other hand, if fighting resumes and oil prices push above $100 again, the whole market could absorb renewed pressure.
May Looks Stronger For Bitcoin
While Bitcoin has held the $70,000 level through previous escalations, Daodu warns that this time could be different because traders would be facing both a broken ceasefire and collapsed talks at the same time. In that case, he says Bitcoin could drop to around $65,000.
Even with the uncertainty in the near term, Daodu’s analysis also includes a longer-term counterpoint. He argues the $78,000 rally is losing momentum and that BTC is unlikely to reclaim those highs before April ends unless the ceasefire is extended.
Still, he emphasizes that zooming out, Bitcoin’s broader position looks quietly bullish. The biggest Bitcoin wallets reportedly accumulated about 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days—the largest monthly buying spree since 2013. At the same time, exchange reserves have reportedly fallen to a seven-year low.
Together, those signals suggest retail may be reacting with panic to every ceasefire update, while larger holders use that volatility to add more BTC.
In short, Daodu concludes that April’s upside looks more like a squeeze that is now cooling off, but the underlying setup heading into May may be stronger than at many other points this year.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
