Bitcoin (BTC) may be starting to shake off the worst part of the downturn that began in October last year, according to new research from Grayscale. The firm points to Feb. 5—when BTC traded around $63,000—as a “durable” market bottom.
Potential Start Of A New Bitcoin Bull Market
In Grayscale’s view, the rebound since that low has been meaningful. The firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, said the BTC price bottomed at roughly $63,000 and has since climbed more than 20%, reaching about $76,000.
That level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which matters because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a drop. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure may ease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control.
For Bitcoin transacted over the past one to three months, Grayscale says the realized price is about $74,000. That implies many newer buyers are already back near break-even.
If BTC continues rising in the days ahead, more recent participants could shift into positive profit and loss, which Grayscale treats as a potential early sign of a bull-market transition.
In that framework, the Feb. 5 low is not just a statistical low—it’s presented as the point where the market may have stabilized enough to start a new upward phase.
$78,000 Still Holds The Key
Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin whales reportedly added about 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest weekly accumulation pace since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have reportedly accumulated more than 1 million BTC over the past three months.
Glassnode data also indicates that upward momentum has cooled somewhat. Even so, it still points to strong buyer interest, which could help cushion the market and reduce the odds of a sharp slide. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has risen, suggesting ongoing participation rather than a sudden exit.
In the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, Glassnode points to several indicators improving, including an increase in the MVRV ratio alongside netflow. These signals are described as consistent with improved profitability expectations and stronger investor interest.
Combined with higher overall trading activity, the picture is presented as a cautiously optimistic shift in sentiment, especially for investors engaging with Bitcoin through regulated channels and traditional custody.
Even with these supportive signs, Bitcoin isn’t free of near-term challenges. BTC has slightly retraced toward the $75,800 area at the time of writing, and it remains unclear whether it can break the closest resistance level near $78,000.
That price point has capped stronger upside moves toward $80,000 since Jan. 30. The overall takeaway is that the market may be setting up for a larger move, but the next step likely depends on whether resistance can be cleared.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
