The odds of a landmark US crypto bill passing this year stand at 50-50, according to one of the industry’s own analysts — even as his CEO boss says the deal is all but done.
A Bill With Big Promises
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says the CLARITY Act — legislation designed to bring regulatory order to the US crypto market — will clear Congress in May and land on US President Donald Trump’s desk in June.
Novogratz made the prediction during a podcast appearance with SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci published Friday, where he framed the bill in sweeping terms.
Around 5.5 billion people worldwide currently have no access to US financial products, he said. With a crypto wallet on a smartphone, a teenager in Bhutan or Bolivia could one day tap into the American economy directly.
The bill would also allow major corporations like SpaceX and Google to be tokenized and sold to investors across the globe, Novogratz added. Its passage is widely seen as a signal that the US is open for crypto business again, after several firms relocated abroad during the Biden administration over what they described as a hostile regulatory climate.
Divided Views Within The Same Firm
Not everyone at Galaxy Digital shares Novogratz’s confidence. Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of research, published a separate assessment Wednesday putting the bill’s chances of passing in 2026 at 50%.
He warned that if committee markup does not happen by mid-May, those odds will fall sharply. The Senate Banking Committee had been expected to schedule a markup hearing by this past Friday. It did not. That miss rattled some in the industry who had been counting on a faster timeline.
Based on reports, Thorn now expects the committee to announce a markup hearing this week, likely for the final days of April. Progress has been slowed partly by a standoff between traditional banks and crypto firms over stablecoin yields.
Banks argue that if stablecoins pay returns, they could pull deposits away from conventional lenders, putting them at a disadvantage.
The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 with support from both parties. Since then, progress in the Senate has stalled.
Novogratz acknowledged the bumpy week but insisted bipartisan backing would carry the bill through. “It’s wildly important for it to get done for both Democrats and Republicans,” he said.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
