A new Angus Reid Institute poll shows that if a referendum were held tomorrow, one in four Albertans would vote to leave Canada.
For Albertans like Dianne Peake, it’s not a far-fetched idea.
She said the country is facing a high-stakes federal election, after nearly a decade of Liberal rule.
Peake spoke with CBC News outside the Pierre Poilievre rally in Nisku on Monday.
She said in the upcoming election a Conservative win is critical for national unity.
“If the Liberals get in — Alberta will separate, guaranteed,” Peake said.
She said if Mark Carney’s Liberals form government, she would be in favour of separating.
It’s a sentiment that has come up a few times during this election campaign. Reform Party founder Preston Manning said in a Globe and Mail column last week that a vote for Mark Carney’s Liberals is a vote for Western separation.
Angus Reid said the separatist tone was higher in 2019, in the aftermath of the Energy East pipeline cancellation and threats to the TransMountain expansion.
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The new Angus Reid poll released this week also showed that only 24 per cent of Alberta residents feel their province is respected by the rest of the country, which is less than half the level of the national average, 52 per cent.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted the online survey March 20-24 among a randomized sample of 2,400 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum.
Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta, said some people feel this way partly out of frustration of Conservatives losing election after election. But for some, it runs deeper.
“The hardcore separatists in Alberta are really part of a global group of folks who are quite frankly tired of losing not just elections, but losing credibility, losing their livelihoods and don’t know quite who or what to blame, but they know something big has to change,” Wesley said.
In his own survey research, Wesley found separatists tend to be older, white and live in rural areas. They often have high school education or sometimes trades education. They are likely to be men who work in industries that are more precarious like oil and gas, Wesley said.
“These are folks whose livelihoods are not only being challenged because of economics and job loss, but they’re also being challenged because it’s no longer seen as being an honourable profession — being seen as part of the problem when it comes to oil and gas.”
Wesley said in his own research, survey respondents who say they’d vote to separate, often also don’t believe it is a real possibility.
“So it tells us that a large portion of the folks who … would support Alberta separatism are not really serious about it, but rather are expressing frustration and blowing off steam,” Wesley said, adding that if a real referendum were to be held, he worries people might vote in favour without truly believing in the idea.
Wesley also found when asked follow-up questions about the logistics of becoming independent — how taxes or a military would work for example — support for independence goes down.
That resonates with John Butler.
“I think it’s not very well thought out because if we leave Canada, where do we go?” Butler said in an interview on Jasper Avenue in Edmonton on Monday. He added without any ports to export Alberta’s resources, independence wouldn’t be much help to Alberta.
“And if the only alternative is to go to the United States, that’s not much of an alternative for me.”
“I like it right here. I think we can work through our problems. We’ve got a history of Canada going back to 1867. Let’s work it out.”
Premier Danielle Smith was asked about Manning’s column on Monday in a news conference. She said Canada hasn’t worked for Alberta in a decade because of federal Liberal policies.
“I have to acknowledge that there’s a lot of unhappiness on the part of Albertans and the way we’ve been treated,” Smith said.
Last month, she released a list of demands for the next prime minister to address in the first six months of office that she said are required to avoid a national unity crisis.
“I want to be able to see what happens after the next election,” Smith said on Monday. “And then I’ll gauge where Albertans are out at that point.”
