Prominent crypto analysis page XWIN Research Japan reports that Bitcoin has reached a new milestone: 15.8 million long-term holders. Interestingly, this record has come amid a bearish period for the leading cryptocurrency, whose value has dropped by 9% since May 6, when prices first peaked around $82,000.
In a QuickTake post on May 30, XWIN analysts dissect this structural anomaly, noting that a surge in long-term holders (LTH) is typically interpreted as a major bullish signal. For context, Bitcoin long-term holders refer to investors/addresses that have held Bitcoin for over 155 days. These investors are generally non-reactive, and their behavior is often seen as a reflection of long-term market conviction.
Bitcoin LTH Surge Points To Demand Shortage
An increase in long-term holders suggests a market dominated by investors with less intention to sell but holding in expectation of future price appreciation. This creates a robust market structure that proves resilient during reactive exits by short-term holders (STH). However, XWIN Research Japan notes that healthy bull markets are generally driven by market demand, i.e., new entrants or other market participants buying off coins from the long-term holders.
Therefore, the increase in LTH, while bullish for market conviction, could also indicate insufficient demand to drive a price rally; hence, the price losses in recent weeks.
XWIN Research Japan shares data that backs this decline in Bitcoin demand across investor cohorts. For example, the growth of whale investors who hold 1,000-10,000 BTC has stalled and is now heading towards a YoY decline. Meanwhile, the rise in dolphins, i.e., addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC, largely comprising institutional investors and ETF issuers, has also declined since early 2025.
Despite a show of confidence from existing investors, XWIN analysts explain that the broader signal is that Bitcoin currently faces a demand shortfall rather than selling pressure, suggesting the market may remain in a demand-recovery phase until institutional flows, whale accumulation, and network participation pick up again.
Bitcoin Market Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $74,000, reflecting stable price action over the last 24 hours. Over larger time frames, the leading cryptocurrency is down 3.45% and 3.95% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively.
According to data from CryptoPredictions, analysts expect Bitcoin to close June around $71,102. During the month, the asset is projected to reach a peak of approximately $84,961, while the lowest price is estimated at about $57,774.
