Bitwise is looking past Bitcoin’s recent slide and toward a much larger pressure point: close to $30 trillion in global debt that needs refinancing in 2026.
The firm said higher Japanese government bond yields and a warning from the IMF about waning demand for government debt could push markets into a tighter corner, a setup Bitwise believes may eventually favor Bitcoin.
Debt Pressure Returns To Center Stage
According to Bitwise, that kind of stress could matter if central banks answer with fresh liquidity. The firm framed Bitcoin as an asset that sits outside government balance sheets and does not depend on a central issuer, which gives it a different role when sovereign borrowing becomes harder to manage.
The report also linked Bitcoin’s appeal to real interest rates. Bitwise said the asset has tended to do better when real yields fall, and that a mix of sticky inflation and a pause from the Federal Reserve could help set that up.
Bitcoin’s May rally lost steam after a sharp run above $80,000. It briefly reached about $83,000, then slipped back toward $70,000 after ETF outflows gathered pace and sentiment cooled.
Bitcoin recovered above $80k in May 2026 before stalling at the $80k–$85k bull-bear threshold and subsequently falling to $72k. ETP outflows, sovereign bond stress, and record hodling defined the month.
Read the full edition of our latest Bitcoin Macro Investor below. pic.twitter.com/oM5ctCIVxW
— Bitwise in Europe (@Bitwise_Europe) June 1, 2026
A Tough Range For Traders
Bitwise said the move higher was helped by a short squeeze, stronger on-chain signals, and about $166.5 million in net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs. Long-term holders also added about 125,000 BTC during the prior month, which gave the rally some support.
That picture changed fast. Global Bitcoin ETPs saw more than $1 billion in net outflows, and the firm said that pressure knocked confidence lower as Bitcoin failed to clear the $80,000 to $85,000 band.
Bitwise called that zone the market’s main dividing line. It said price action around that range will keep shaping whether traders view the market as healthy or fragile.
Holding Patterns Keep Tightening Supply
Even with weaker demand, Bitwise said the supply side is moving in a tighter direction. Long-term investors now hold a record 14.85 million BTC, or about 73% of the circulating supply.
The firm added that 60% of Bitcoin has not moved in more than a year, 48.5% for more than two years, 42.8% for more than three years, and 33% for at least five years. That kind of inactivity, Bitwise said, is squeezing available supply while buyers have been slower to return.
The report also argued that Bitcoin still looks cheap beside major US tech stocks. It said Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio sits below its long-run average, while the Nasdaq 100’s price-to-book reading is near record highs.
Price Levels Still Matter
Bitwise pointed to $78,000 to $80,000 as the key area to watch, with $83,000 to $85,000 marked as the first major ceiling. It listed $73,000 as important support and $95,000 as the next upside target.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,460, down 4.7% in the last 24 hours, data from Coingecko shows.
Featured image from FXStreet, chart from TradingView
