Analyst Who Called Cycle Top Says Bitcoin Bottom Could Be At $28,500 — Here’s When

The Bitcoin price briefly fell below the $60,000 level for the first time since 2024, succumbing to intense bearish pressure that ravaged global financial markets on Friday, June 5th. While the imminent initial public offering of SpaceX in the United States has been identified as one of the catalysts behind the downturn, the US equities market was not spared on the day, as major large-cap stocks recorded double-digit losses.

Interestingly, a popular crypto trader on social media platform X who sold their Bitcoin holdings at the peak of the latest bullish cycle has come forward with a projection for the cryptocurrency’s bottom following the latest price action. According to the pundit, the Bitcoin price could fall to as low as $28,500 to find its cycle bottom.

Is A Fall To $28,500 Inevitable For BTC Price?

In a recent post on the X platform, pseudonymous trader CryptoCon shared an insight into a possible path for Bitcoin’s price over the next few months. The crypto analyst identified $44,500 and $28,500 as the potential next bear targets for the premier cryptocurrency.

This projection centers on the analyst’s Bear Bands, which helped pinpoint bear bottoms in past cycles. As shown in the chart below, this indicator comprises three bands: the First Low Bear Band, the Second Low Band, and the Third Low Bear Band.

As CryptoCon highlighted in their analysis, the Bitcoin price has broken beneath the First Low Bear Band after its recent downturn and appears very likely to close below the level. The market analyst noted that a confirmed close below this first band could mean a potential decline toward the Second Low Band at around $44,500.

However, CryptoCon said that the cycle bottom target lies on the Third Low Bear Band and “on the lower end of my projections” at around $28,500. If history is anything to go by, the Bitcoin price has always fallen into this bear band before kickstarting another bullish cycle. 

CryptoCon wrote on X:

I am being very patient for the right cycle low conditions, I am not afraid of “missing out”. Especially as returns diminish and the possibility of a lackluster cycle (which most people find impossible) looms, it is more important than ever to wait for the best time to invest.

It is worth noting that the analyst also postulated a timeline for when the Bitcoin price would reach each of these downside targets. CryptoCon expects the flagship cryptocurrency to reach the Second Bear Band between August and October, then fall to a bottom of $28,500 around November 2026 and January 2027.

Bitcoin Price Overview

A drop to around $28,500 would represent a 77% decline from BTC’s all-time high. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $61,850, reflecting an over 2% decline in the past 24 hours.

While this single-day decline looks relatively modest, a broader timeframe provides more context for the market leader’s struggles over the past week. According to CoinGecko data, the Bitcoin price has dropped by more than 15% in the last seven days.