Bitcoin closed the week of June 5, 2026 down by almost 20%, its highest single-week percentage decline since the collapse of FTX in November 2022. The last time the market saw a candle this red, it was during the cycle bottom.
This time, however, the current setup is more complicated, as Bitcoin is reacting to a combination of institutional selling pressure, ETF weakness, and fading confidence after a failed recovery attempt above $82,000.
Bitcoin’s Drop Brings Back The FTX Comparison
Bitcoin’s price action in the first week of June was one of its most notable weeks in history. BTC opened the week around $73,760, briefly pushed as high as $74,092, and then fell to a low of about $59,130, according to data from TradingView.
The move translates to a decline of about 19.5% from the weekly open to the low and 20.1% from the high to the low, making it Bitcoin’s worst weekly percentage drop since the FTX crash in 2022, when the price fell by roughly 22% in a single week.
However, there is also a note about where the candle is showing up in the market structure. During the FTX collapse, the violent weekly move came after months of selling pressure and ended up happening close to the final bear-market bottom. The current decline is also appearing after Bitcoin has already lost a major portion of its value from the October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,150, placing it about 50.7% below that peak. The similarity does not guarantee that the market has reached a bottom, but it does raise the possibility that the latest weekly price crash is moving into the kind of final-washout zone that followed FTX’s crash. That angle is being overlooked by many analysts, especially as several forecasts still point to a prolonged bear market that could stretch into at least Q4 2026
Bitcoin Enters Extreme Undervaluation
Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin has now fallen below the 4% quantile on the Bitcoin Porkopolis Power Law Quantile Regression model. The chart places Bitcoin’s current quantile around 3.9%, meaning the asset is trading in a zone that has appeared during less than 4% of its historical price action relative to its long-term growth curve.
The Power Law model is a long-term valuation model that can also be used for a reversal signal. Every prior instance in which the quantile oscillator reached this level, visible in the chart across 2015, 2018/2019, and the 2022 bottom, preceded notable multi-year recoveries.
Bitcoin Power Law Regression. Source: @Darkfost_Coc On X
Bitcoin can stay undervalued for longer than traders expect, especially if the momentum is weak and there’s forced selling. Still, the metric does show that Bitcoin is now much closer to the lower regression bands than the overheated upper bands in previous cycle peaks.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
