Monday’s Bitcoin (BTC) rebound—pushing back above the $63,00 area—has revived a major question: was last Friday’s drop to $59,000 the bottom for BTC?
Seeking to answer that, market analyst Ali Martinez released a new technical note on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Bitcoin appears poised to reach a market bottom while a “major macro accumulation cycle” begins to form.
Why The Sell-off Could Signal A Bottom
In Martinez’s view, BTC’s decline to its lowest level since 2024 served as an important cleansing function for the market—effectively shaking out “overleveraged premiums” across the board.
That type of flush, Martinez argues, is often what makes bottoms possible: it removes leverage stress and forces late and speculative positions to unwind.
A central part of his explanation is the role of long-term holders. Martinez claims that long-term investors distributed more than $3.25 billion worth of spot Bitcoin during the downswing.
He says this distributed supply temporarily raised exchange reserves, which can translate into increased potential selling pressure as coins move closer to trading venues.
Supporting that point, Martinez also cites data indicating that over 54,000 BTC have moved onto trading platforms over the past two weeks, which he frames as a further contributor to the selling dynamic.
Next Bitcoin Targets
Even with Monday’s recovery, Martinez emphasizes what happened at the downside. He points out that following the move down to $59,000, more than 10.46 million BTC are currently held at a loss.
In his technical framework, that’s a key threshold to watch. Martinez notes that historically, when the “supply-in-loss” metric crosses the extreme 10 million BTC level, it has helped time macro bottoms with notable accuracy.
From there, Martinez turns to the MVRV Pricing Bands, which he describes as offering “geometric targets” for where Bitcoin accumulation windows tend to mature.
According to his post, the most reliable accumulation periods historically occur when Bitcoin settles within the 1.0 to 0.8 MVRV bands. Martinez says those bands align with two specific target areas: approximately $53,900 and $43,150.
In other words, if the bottom is indeed approaching or forming now, he suggests the market may gravitate toward those zones as the next stages in a broader consolidation-and-accumulation process.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
