The Conservatives are using the final week of the election campaign to run advertisements where older men are telling other older men to vote for the party — a closing argument that would have been unthinkable only months ago, political advertising experts say.
In new television ads that are airing regularly during the heavily watched NHL playoffs, the Conservatives are playing one spot in which two seniors are golfing and discussing how tough life is for their children, and another where former prime minister Stephen Harper endorses Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Neither commercial shows images of Poilievre.
“We’re living in an upside-down world this campaign. Voters that were bedrock Conservative voters in the Harper era now need to be won over. And these are the boomers, 50-plus males,” said Dennis Matthews, president of Creative Currency and a former advertising adviser to Harper.
Conservatives roll out ads without Poilievre in final stretch of campaign | Power & Politics
The Conservatives are continuing to trail the Liberals in a majority of polls less than a week before election day.
In the 30-second golfing ad, two older men are having a conversation at a driving range. One man, while practising his swing, acknowledges his son “can’t seem to get ahead,” while the other, standing nearby, says he had to pay for his daughter’s down payment.
The second man tries to convince his golfing buddy that Liberal Leader Mark Carney won’t solve this problem.
“Come on, do you really think that a fourth Liberal term is going to change anything?” he asks.
“You know, I’ve been thinking the same thing,” the first man says.
Matthews said the ad speaks to the Conservatives pushing for change as the ballot-box question, all while specifically targeting older men.
“It’s a literal expression of the discussion that they want these voters to be having,” he said.
Dan Arnold, who was director of research and advertising for former prime minister Justin Trudeau, said the ads are unlike anything the Conservatives have run under Poilievre’s leadership.
“All their advertising really for the past two years has been very Poilievre-centric. It has been him as the narrator, him as the star of the ads,” Arnold said.
Earlier in the campaign, one Conservative ad was voiced by Poilievre over images of himself and his supporters at rallies, along with scenic views of Canada.
But Poilievre isn’t referenced in the golfing spot, and he’s mentioned but not seen or heard in the Harper endorsement.
Arnold, now a pollster with Pollara Strategic Insights, said Poilievre’s absence is likely an acknowledgement of his low approval ratings among seniors, as recent polling suggests.
“You can’t really change opinions about leaders at this stage in the game,” he said.
“At this point, older men are very positive toward Carney, so [the Conservatives] have to reach those voters with the one thing that they do have as an advantage, which is those voters are ones who are maybe still uneasy about the Liberals.”
Polling data suggests older Canadians are the most likely demographic to hold a negative view of Poilievre, so his absence from recent ads isn’t surprising, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Abacus Data.
“I think it speaks directly to a demographic that the Conservatives need to win in order to win this election,” he said.
Coletto said voters still want change, but some of them have been wooed by Carney.
In the first weeks of the campaign, the Conservatives tried to define Carney as a carbon copy of Trudeau and an out-of-touch elitist, but Coletto said that messaging didn’t break through.
A message from Canada’s 22nd Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Stephen J. Harper. <br><br>Vote for Change. Vote Conservative. <a href=”https://t.co/d9ACcIGYYl”>pic.twitter.com/d9ACcIGYYl</a>
The Harper endorsement plays to the Conservatives’ past strength with the demographic, Arnold said. Harper was most popular with older men, many of whom have moved to Carney.
Harper is seated at a table, with the Canadian flag behind him. He echoes his line from a recent rally in Edmonton, when he said Poilievre’s experience as a cabinet minister in his government prevails over the credentials of Carney, who served as governor of the Bank of Canada during Harper’s time in office.
“The two men running to lead us both once worked for me and my choice, unequivocally, is Pierre Poilievre,” Harper says in the ad.
One Liberal ad in heavy rotation during the Stanley Cup playoffs includes a Carney voiceover warning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his threats to Canada. The spot briefly features a photo of Carney shaking hands with Harper when they were working together.
“We live in this world where both parties are sort of going after the type of voter that voted for Stephen Harper en masse in 2006, ’08, ’11, and partially in ’15,” Matthews said.
The NDP is running four ads during the NHL playoffs.
There’s a 30-second spot where leader Jagmeet Singh says NDP MPs get things done “even when we’re not in power.” Others highlight families, health care and how a Carney-led government could result in cuts to services.
Matthews said these four different themes show the party hasn’t found its central message.
However, Coletto argued the NDP must shift the election conversation away from Trump and the desire for change in favour of its banner issues such as health care.
Voters are “more naturally inclined to think of the NDP as better able to deal with that issue than a lot of the others,” he said.
Federal parties running candidates in all 343 ridings are capped at spending around $35 million, and at the start of the campaign the NDP said it was prepared to hit that cap. A registered third party cannot spend more than $602,700.
