Even with the dust still settling on the results of the federal election, the clock has already begun ticking on Mark Carney’s promises to unite and build the Canadian economy.
“We will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven’t seen in generations,” he said in his victory speech early Tuesday morning.
Carney, a former central banker and a first-time politician, has campaigned as a calm, steady hand — an experienced economist who knows how to navigate a crisis. At the core of that campaign was a promise to build the economy in a way that would decrease reliance on the U.S. and offset the potentially catastrophic impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“It’s time to build new trade and energy corridors working in partnership with the provinces [and] territories and Indigenous Peoples,” Carney told Liberal supporters.
“It’s time to build hundreds of thousands of not just good jobs, but good careers in the skilled trades. It’s time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.”
But that will be easier said than done.
“We don’t have time. We need to get going. The world’s not going to wait,” said Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada.
There are dozens of open letters and lists of demands from industry associations and business alliances. At or near the top of all of them is a push to bring down interprovincial trade barriers. Despite Canadian businesses taking issue with these barriers for years, the political will to fix the problem only truly developed in the face of Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex Canada.
This was evident on Tuesday morning, as the results from the election were becoming clear. News emerged from the White House of a potential change in tariff policy that would exert yet more pressure on automakers to move their parts supply chains into the United States (and out of Canada). Trump signed the new plan via executive order on Tuesday afternoon.
The crisis awaiting the new Liberal government is actually a series of many different problems. The tariffs and the trade war pose one whole set of challenges. But they also expose underlying weakness that has been building in Canada’s economy for years.
For his part, Carney has said he’s committed to seeing more open, freer trade in this country by Canada Day. And Ottawa had already begun the process of breaking down many barriers earlier this year.
“The point is that we can give ourselves far more than the Americans can ever take away,” he said in his speech.
Economists say there are a whole host of ways to grow the economy. And many mention the fact that there is already fairly widespread consensus on what needs to be done.
A TD Economics report highlights what it called “significant alignment” in areas like defence spending, resource development, tariffs, housing and tax policies.
“And now the rubber hits the road on collaboration and negotiations, with Liberals caught between the demands of the U.S. administration and those of domestic politics,” wrote TD’s chief economist Beata Caranci along with senior economists Andrew Hencic and Francis Fong.
Minority governments often make that kind of work more difficult, but the TD Economics team says with 84.9 per cent of voting Canadians throwing their support behind either the Conservatives or the Liberals, they also sent the message that they expect those parties to get along.
After all, there was significant policy overlap in the campaign. The Conservatives complained that the Liberals adopted a number of the party’s key platform ideas ranging from cutting income taxes and the consumer carbon tax to increasing defence spending.
“It’s crucial that the broader interests of Canada prevail,” the TD team wrote.
The pressure on the new government will be enormous. Canadians expect Carney to make good on his promises. And industry associations are already highlighting the commitments he made throughout the campaign.
“This election marked a defining shift in Canada’s energy future,” wrote Mark Scholz, CEO of the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors in a statement ostensibly congratulating the new Prime Minister. “Canadians spoke clearly: The debate is no longer whether to develop our natural resources, but how swiftly and boldly we can advance.”
At the same time, about eight million Canadians voted for the Conservatives, and Western Canada’s anger and dissatisfaction with the Liberals is reaching a fevered pitch.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said multiple times she won’t let the status quo continue.
“We will no longer tolerate having our industries threatened and our resources landlocked by Ottawa,” she wrote in a social media post after the election.
The premier went on to say Albertans will discuss their province’s future in the weeks and months ahead.
“[We will] assess various options for strengthening and protecting our province against future hostile acts from Ottawa, and to ultimately choose a path forward,” wrote the Alberta premier.
But the solution to the economic problems just may be the solution to the political problems, as well.
If Carney can make good on his promise and actually expand the economy, turn Canada into an energy superpower, expand hiring and increase wages, much of the case against him will be diminished.
If he fails to deliver on those promises, the cascading series of crises may well compound and get worse.
