Doug Ford’s government will table Ontario’s budget on May 15, it confirmed at Queen’s Park on Thursday.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s chaotic trade war will loom large over the budget, experts recently told CBC News.
On Wednesday, Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO) issued a new report that found U.S. tariffs and Canada’s response could result in 68,100 fewer jobs in the province this year.
This is the Ford government’s first budget since winning a third-straight majority government in February. Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will likely provide an outline of the proposed spending during a keynote address he’s set to deliver at the Empire Club of Canada on May 12.
Ford has conceded his government has to weigh its priorities carefully in this moment and may not be able to balance its books.
“There’s a time to make sure that we balance and there’s times that we see that there might be a few billion dollars more to protect communities,” he said recently, in a hint his government may be moving away from its goal of getting to balance in the 2026-2027 fiscal year.
The government had projected a $1.5-billion deficit in this spring budget, followed by a surplus of just under a billion dollars the following year.
The FAO report, meanwhile, compares a tariff scenario based on trade actions announced by the U.S. and Canada as of April 17 against a no tariff scenario.
“The actual impact of tariffs on Ontario’s economy is uncertain and will depend on the magnitude, breadth and duration of tariff coverage, as well as how businesses, households and economies respond,” the report said.
U.S. tariffs are expected to raise Ontario’s unemployment rate by 1.1 per cent from 2025 to 2029, compared to the no tariff scenario, the report said.
