A referendum is coming — just not now.
That was the message from Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon during a round of media interviews on Tuesday.
Just over a week before the start of Quebec’s election campaign, St-Pierre Plamondon released a statement early in the day saying he would not hold a sovereignty referendum while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office.
Trump’s term ends on Jan. 20, 2029.
That would leave St-Pierre Plamondon over a year and a half to hold a referendum before the end of his first mandate — assuming his party wins a majority in Quebec’s Oct. 5 election.
In an interview with CBC News, St-Pierre Plamondon said he is clarifying his party’s intentions ahead of the election campaign. The next government will be focused on “reversing problems” caused by the reigning Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ).
“It’s not a pushback. We’ve been saying there would be a referendum within the first four years,” he said. “Now we are being more precise.”
He said the situation with the U.S. has been influencing Canadian politics, starting with Mark Carney’s “elbows up” campaign — using fear to erase Justin Trudeau’s tenure from voters’ memories, he said.
No referendum with Trump around, says PQ ahead of October election
St-Pierre Plamondon’s announcement comes amid economic anxiety surrounding impending U.S. tariffs. The last round of tariffs was a major blow to the Quebec economy.
Philippe Fournier, a poll analyst, said much remains unclear ahead of the start of the provincial campaign, with the PQ holding a small lead over the Quebec Liberal Party in opinion polls.
But one thing is clear: most voters don’t want another referendum, at least not now.
“It was the best possible strategy to try to appease voters who are concerned about the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration, the tariffs, and just the global uncertainty,” Fournier said of the PQ leader’s announcement.
“This is an attempt by Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon to defuse this issue. I’m not sure it will work.”
Opposition parties were quick to pounce on St-Pierre Plamondon’s move.
Éric Duhaime, leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, which is opposed to another referendum, labelled St-Pierre Plamondon a “referendum weather vane.”
“How can anyone trust someone who spent five years repeating that he would achieve independence at all costs, and then changes his mind one week before the election? If another protectionist government takes power in Washington, what will he do? Postpone his project yet again?” Duhaime said.
“Quebec does not have to have its political agenda dictated by the Americans.”
Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard said the postponement indicates “separating Quebec from Canada is a weak option” and that the PQ isn’t being clear about its intentions.
“It’s a party that’s saying yes and no at the same time,” Milliard said.
Christine Fréchette, Quebec’s current premier and the leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec, said the announcement was “irresponsible” given the looming tariffs.
The PQ has been in power multiple times since the last, near-miss referendum in 1995, but has avoided putting the question to voters for a third time.
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St-Pierre Plamondon, however, maintains a PQ government would hold a referendum within its first mandate.
He said nobody is disappointed with the timeline now that it is more precise. Now his party intends to a run a campaign that is “clear and solid on every topic.”
Fournier said St-Pierre Plamondon’s plan could appeal to “soft nationalist voters who may not be keen on a referendum but want to see Fréchette replaced.”
He added: “The question is, will it work? I’m not sure about that.”
PQ says referendum on Quebec independence won’t happen while Trump in power
