With 60 days left until Alberta’s referendum, stay and leave sides plot their course

Only 60 days remain until Albertans answer 10 questions that could shape the future of the province.

Nine focus on immigration and constitutional reform. But it’s the 10th question — whether Albertans want the province to remain in Canada or hold a second, binding referendum on separation — that is increasingly poised to animate town halls and rallies scheduled in the coming days.

And with the clock ticking, both sides have limited opportunities to win over hearts and minds. 

That will be a challenge.

Longtime pollster Janet Brown has been watching the numbers for years. Those numbers have shown, consistently, that support for separatism trails well behind those who back staying in Canada. 

“We’ve seen very little movement in the data over the past eight years,” Brown said. “And very few people remain undecided at this point — in the five per cent to eight per cent range.”

Given that, the referendum campaign is becoming less about persuasion, and more about mobilization, in Brown’s view.

“Voter turnout is critical for both sides,” she said.

There are, of course, many different groups competing for eyeballs on both sides of the debate. 

Here’s a look at how four of them say they’ll approach the campaign’s next phase.

One pro-independence leader says some on the campaign trail have been hesitant to share publicly that they support Alberta independence. He’s not entirely convinced the polls are accurate.

“But from a strategic point of view, we assume they are,” said Keith Wilson with the third-party advertiser Let Alberta Decide. “So we realize we have an uphill battle.” 

The group, which leads all third-party advertisers with more than $415,000 in donations as of Aug. 13, is planning a major rally on Oct. 17 at the Alberta Legislature, two days before the referendum. 

Traditional get-out-the-vote operations are planned, including organizing minibuses to drive people to stations. 

Polling shows support for independence is strongest in rural regions, but weaker in the urban areas, so the group is concentrating efforts in Calgary and Edmonton, as well as smaller cities like Lethbridge and Lloydminster.

It’s also adapting its messaging on social media towards different demographics — for instance, towards young men in their 20s struggling to make rent, or towards senior citizens concerned about their grandchildren’s future.

“We’re going to be ramping up incrementally as we get closer to the voting day,” Wilson said.

Last Friday, volunteers were busy at the Forever Canadian campaign office in Edmonton, stacking lawn signs into wagons before loading them into vehicles.

Organizer Thomas Lukaszuk said the group has teams “literally in every municipality across Alberta,” and plans to visit more towns in Forever Canadian’s “Unity Bus.”

“I think we’re in the second period of a hockey game, but this has been already going on for one year and one month,” Lukaszuk said.

Lukaszuk said some large rallies organized by Forever Canadian are planned over the next couple of months, and the group plans to continue distributing its lawn signs across the province. 

The group has said it has more than 18,000 Albertans who volunteered to promote unity. As of now, Lukaszuk said he sees the group’s role continuing much as it has been.

“If we pivot into get out the vote, then obviously we have the resources. But at this stage of this campaign, that’s not what we’re focusing on,” he said. “We’re focusing on boosting Canadian pride, and that seems to be a very effective campaign.”

This group, which led the citizen initiative petition looking to force a vote on Alberta separating from Canada, views October as the culmination of years of work. 

Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of Alberta Prosperity Project, said the group plans to maximize advance polls — even if it’s not something it “agrees with” — while holding town halls across Alberta.

“We’ll focus on getting people out to vote right now. I think we’ll have a very good chance if we get our people out,” Sylvestre said.

The group has a rally planned Aug. 29 at the Alberta Legislature, which it refers to as a “gathering for a province in peril.”

In the lead-up to the vote, the group plans to encourage its members to develop a list of close friends and neighbours, ensuring they’re responsible to get them to polls.

Alberta’s Voice, run by Decide Campaigns’ president Stephen Carter, currently has the most contributions listed for a pro-Confederation campaign, with more than $87,000.

Carter said Alberta’s Voice would like to do an “air war” advertising campaign, buying radio spots in Calgary, Edmonton and rural Alberta.  

“But raising funds has been our primary challenge, and we need to make sure that we’re able to compete with the separatists,” Carter said. “The leading separatist group has raised four times as much money as we have.”

The group is also focused on undecided voters and is aiming for a 75-25 split on referendum day in favour of staying in Canada.

“The number one thing to do is to really dig into the undecided voters,” Carter said. 

“There’s not many of them, but those that are there are going to make the difference between whether or not we have to face this again in the future, or if we can kill this dead right off the top.”

The group plans to establish a campaign college in early September to train volunteers on voter mobilization. It also has designs on a “captain system,” which would involve people emailing and calling others to get to the polls on election day.

“We’re hoping to sign up 100,000 people through that mechanism,” Carter said. “And that will enable us to really change, I think, the overall turnout. 

“The people who we’re targeting aren’t necessarily the hyper-engaged, but they’re the ones who are adjacent to the hyper-engaged.”

While the referendum is 60 days away, Elections Alberta is also allowing residents to vote by mail — and that deadline comes sooner. Special ballot packages must be received before 5 p.m. on Oct. 16.