A series of studies suggests freighters hardened against ice can safely navigate Hudson Bay outside of the existing four-month Port of Churchill shipping season — but warn ice will remain in the bay and pose challenges in the coming decades even under pessimistic global warming scenarios.
The studies, commissioned in the hope of determining whether the Port of Churchill’s shipping season can be extended, also warn ice conditions will still vary year to year, meaning the thickness of the ice on Hudson Bay and the vessels required to navigate this ice will create some uncertainty.
One of the studies also casts doubt on the ability of ice-hardened vessels carrying full loads of liquid natural gas to navigate the mouth of the Churchill River.
The results of the studies will provide Manitoba’s government with some certainty as it attempts to pitch investors on a multibillion-dollar proposal to expand the Port of Churchill and upgrade the Hudson Bay Railway.
Arctic Gateway Group, which owns the port and railway, partnered with shipping company Fednav to determine what’s required to make year-round shipping possible in and out of the Port of Churchill.
This study concluded it is feasible to extend Churchill’s shipping season today using ice-hardened freighters and that year-round access is possible in the future.
Shrinking sea ice makes year-round shipping possible on Hudson Bay: Manitoba premier’s office
Fednav, however, warned this is subject to “the highly dynamic ice environment of Hudson Bay” and challenges of navigating the shallow and narrow approach to the Port of Churchill within the Hudson Bay estuary.
“Field studies, probe voyages, and simulation-based assessments would help reduce these uncertainties and support future decisions regarding extended-season or year-round shipping operations,” Fednav said in its report.
Arctic Research Foundation estimated the cost of a purchasing the third-toughest class of ice-hardened vessel in a range of $280 million to $410 million, while the fourth-toughest class of ice-hardened vessel would cost $100 million to $130 million.
Both would cost significantly less than multibillion-dollar icebreakers that can traverse the thickest multi-year ice in the Arctic Ocean.
“Existing depth constraints over the approach shoal, within the estuary, and alongside the berths are insufficient for the [third-toughest class] vessel’s dimensions and draft,” Fednav said.
“Significant dredging, infrastructure modifications, or development of an offshore loading facility would be required before such vessels could be employed at Churchill.”
A third study conducted by a group of academics, including University of Manitoba sea ice expert Feiyue Wang, concluded there will still be ice on Hudson Bay if the average global temperature rises five degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the latter part of this century.
Atmospheric scientists currently expect the average global temperarture to rise 3.4 degrees Celsius in this time frame.
