Where do young people stand in separation debates in Alberta and Quebec?

In two Canadian provinces, two different conversations are unfolding about the prospect of leaving the country for good, and it seems two different age cohorts are making the push.

In Quebec, some of those at the forefront are people who weren’t even born when la belle province last had its say in a separation referendum, in 1995.

Earlier this summer, a pro-independence group threw a large event coinciding with Fête nationale, where some 12,000 people showed up, many of them Gen Z.

In Alberta, the demographic pushing for separation tends to skew a little older. 

“We find that peak separatism is actually in the middle-aged categories,” said John Santos, data scientist at Janet Brown Opinion Research. 

The polling company surveyed Albertans earlier this year for CBC News on their views on separation, with the results suggesting support for independence was highest in the 45- to 54-year-old range, at 35 per cent.

On the flip side, 18- to 24-year-olds had the highest disapproval of separatism, at 81 per cent, with the polling suggesting just 14 per cent were in favour. 

Santos notes that grouping had a lower number of respondents, and therefore a higher margin of error. But recent polls from Angus Reid and Leger also both suggest the percentage of support for Alberta separation among 18- to 34-year-olds to be in the mid-teens.

That’s not to say there isn’t support among young Albertans, according to Santos, and he adds that it’s entirely possible more young people could be persuaded. 

“Many of those younger people are just starting to engage with civic and political ideas and so I think the larger story here is that many of them are not committed one way or another,” Santos said.

“In some ways, they could be up for grabs.” 

Camille Goyette-Gingras is president of OUI Québec, a pro-Quebec independence organization that describes itself as non-partisan and grassroots, and organized the June event. 

At 32, she describes herself as one of the older staff members of the group. 

“In general, I think it’s true for young people around the world, but it’s really true for young people in Quebec, there’s like a feeling that there’s a loss of control over what could happen in their future,” Goyette-Gingras said.

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She says that includes concerns about the environment, and specifically in Quebec, concerns about loss of culture or language.

And for the most part, she does not think parental influence is playing a part.

“I think it’s mostly young people among themselves that took back the independence idea like it never existed before,” she said. 

“So sometimes we see a moment a bit funny with their parents, because you have the kid that is explaining to their parents what is the Quebec independence movement, but sometimes [the parent] themselves have been [an] activist a few years back.”

In speaking with CBC Radio’s The Current in June, 25-year-old OUI Québec organizer Alex Valiquette highlighted a few factors that could be pushing young Quebecers to the movement. He noted frustration about the future, post-pandemic isolation, and in some cases, simply the fact his generation is coming at it with fresh eyes. 

“What’s different is that we don’t have this humiliation that our parents felt when they lost it,” he told The Current. 

Just 1.16 percentage points separated the yes and no votes in the 1995 referendum.

While young Quebecers may have become a visible face of the sovereignty push, from a numbers perspective, support for independence is similar among all ages, according to recent polling. A Leger poll this month put support at 31 per cent among those 18-34, compared to 32 per cent and 29 per cent for those 35-54 and 55-plus, respectively. 

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But a referendum in Quebec is unlikely to come anytime soon. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said recently that should he win this fall’s provincial election, he would not call a sovereignty referendum while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office. 

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Goyette-Gingas says she often faces questions from reporters about her thoughts on Alberta independence. To her, it’s a different situation that feels somewhat removed from their quest.

But she says whatever the outcome, she hopes Ottawa respects Albertans’ democratic wishes.

At 23 years old, Madison Holmes says she knows she is among the younger voices calling for a sovereign Alberta.

“Good on Quebec. They have a bit more of a history for speaking out and having their opinions shared. And this is a new thing for Alberta, at least this generation, our younger generation,