Seven years ago, when a joint bid by the United States, Canada and Mexico was awarded the 2026 World Cup, rifts created by tariffs — yes, back then, too! — and a proposed border wall were glossed over because of the neighbours’ longstanding political and economic alliances.
“The unity of the three nations was the overriding theme articulated by Carlos Cordeiro, then-president of the U.S. Soccer Federation. “A powerful message,” he called it.
Well, here we are now, with the soccer showcase arriving in North America in about 15 months, and U.S. President Donald Trump back in office — inciting trade wars between the neighbours, not to mention across the globe, by levying tariffs that come, then go, then return, with more promised, including what the Republican calls “reciprocal tariffs ” starting Wednesday.
It’s hard to know how, exactly, the current geopolitical fissures, made all the more stark every time Trump or those in his administration talk provocatively about making Canada the 51st state, might affect the World Cup, its organization and co-ordination, fans’ travel plans and more.
“Oh, I think it’s going to make it more exciting,” was Trump’s take during an Oval Office appearance with FIFA president Gianni Infantino last month. “Tension’s a good thing.”
Given the U.S. also is preparing to welcome the world for FIFA’s Club World Cup in June, golf’s Ryder Cup in September and the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028, the question becomes: Will the world want to come?
And, taking Trump’s border and visa policies into account, will the world be able to?
Alan Rothenberg, who ran the 1994 World Cup and successfully oversaw the bid to host the 1999 Women’s World Cup as then-president of U.S. Soccer, thinks the answers to those questions are “Yes.” Pointing to concerns about the last two World Cups, in Russia in 2018 and Qatar in 2022, he noted those still attracted attendance totals above three million apiece.
“People love the United States around the world — frankly, we wouldn’t have the immigration issue that we’re dealing with if that weren’t the case — so a lot of this is government-to-government,” Rothenberg said. “A passionate soccer fan is not going to be held up by that.”
He doesn’t think one of the host nations would drop out of the World Cup, say, or that other countries might boycott, as happened at the 1976, 1980 and 1984 Summer Olympics.
“More than anything, they’ll see it as an opportunity for, perhaps, rapprochement, rather than escalating the tensions,” Rothenberg said.
“Besides, from an organizing standpoint, if either Canada or Mexico withdrew” from the World Cup, he said, “the U.S. would pick up the games in a heartbeat.”
Still, as the White House stance on tariffs and Russia’s war in Ukraine have put Europe on edge, and relations with other countries have become fraught, it might not be a surprise if soccer stadiums for the U.S. games at the World Cup offer the same sort of anti-American sentiment heard when spectators in Canada booed The Star-Spangled Banner during hockey’s 4 Nations Face-Off in February.
FIFA, soccer’s governing body, did not respond to Associated Press requests for comment, but Infantino has never hidden his admiration for Trump, which he often demonstrates via social media. They have met at least five times since the U.S. election in November.
Last week, when Kirsty Coventry was elected president of the International Olympic Committee — becoming the first woman in that position — she was asked how she would work with Trump and what she would tell athletes about travelling to the U.S. for the next Games.
“I have been dealing with, let’s say, difficult men, in high positions since I was 20 years old,” Coventry said with a chuckle, “and first and foremost, what I have learned is that communication will be key. That is something that will happen early on. And my firm belief is that President Trump is a huge lover of sports. He will want these Games to be significant. He will want them to be a success.”
Referring to concerns about whether the administration might deny some athletes visas, she added: “We will not waiver from our values of solidarity in ensuring that every athlete that qualifies for the Olympic Games has the possibility to attend the Olympic Games and be safe during the Olympic Games.”
The overriding assumption among those involved in the Olympics is that Trump will assure the 2028 Games are a success.
As U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee chairman Gene Sykes put it: “I can’t speak for him, but I think he’s the kind of person who probably believes that having these go very, very well is a reflection of his leadership.”
“The most likely outcome is that Trump’s nonsense won’t have an impact,” said Smith College professor Andrew Zimbalist, an expert on the economics of sports.
“My guess is that if relations between Canada and the U.S. deteriorate to the point that there are travel restrictions and spending restrictions,” Zimbalist said, “Trump would — just like he’s making exceptions all the time on his tariffs policies – make an exception for a month or six weeks.”
The U.S. and Canadian soccer federations declined AP requests for comment on how White House policies might affect the 2026 World Cup.
Gabriela Cuevas, who represents Mexico’s government in meetings with FIFA, said she considers the tariffs and the soccer event “separate issues,” adding that she believes “the World Cup could be a route to engage in a conversation.”
Observers tend to agree, saying logistics such as security co-operation or team transportation from city to city — or country to country — should not be hampered when it comes to the World Cup, scheduled to take place in 16 cities across the U.S., Canada and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, 2026.
The borders might become an issue, though.
“The main thing FIFA needs to move for this event is not car parts, and it’s not wheat, and it’s not electricity. It’s people. That’s your real concern,” said Victor Matheson, an economics professor at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Mass.
“What were previously pretty reasonable border crossings could become much more challenging, simply because both sides amp up their level of inspections and the United States, in particular, cuts down government services that allow people to move effectively between countries.”
As for the fans, 29-year-old Mexican businessman German Camacho Pacheco said, “soccer is religion” in his country, so when it comes to the World Cup, “I don’t think they care about tariffs.”
Camacho, wearing the Monterrey club jersey of defender Sergio Ramos while on the way to watch a game at a sports bar in Mexico City, said he doesn’t expect there to be any effect at all on the World Cup “unless this goes from a trade war to an actual war.”
