A Memorial University researcher says the jaw-dropping amount of fentanyl police say they’ve seized from a St. John’s trailer is a bellwether for danger to come.
“It would be important to look at this possibly as a canary in the coal mine,” says Gillian Kolla, an assistant professor of public health.
“There have been increases in fentanyl-related deaths in Newfoundland and Labrador and across Atlantic Canada over the past couple of years … it’s really, really important right now to be thinking about the strategies that we can put in place upstream to prevent overdose related deaths.”
The Royal Newfoundland Constabulary on Wednesday announced the lab results of a bust in Cochrane Pond Park in September. Police said they’d seized hundreds of grams of fentanyl and similar opiates — far more, said Deputy Chief Colin McNeil, than the force had ever seen.
But Kolla says busts like that one can actually cause a spike in overdoses in nearby areas.
After record fentanyl bust, this MUN researcher warns of a canary in the coal mine
“There’s something actually known as the drug bust paradox,” Kolla said.
“Community members think that bringing drugs off the street, and this type of drug bust, is a positive. In fact, we have very strong public health research that shows that often in the wake of drug busts like this, opioid-related overdose deaths increase.”
That’s likely because people with addictions are forced to turn to other sources of supply and buy from dealers they aren’t familiar with, she explains. When people don’t know how strong their drugs are, their risk for overdoses goes up.
“Policing and enforcement and drug busts don’t stop people who are dependent on opioids from needing opioids. What they do is they force them into more difficult situations,” she said.
Heavy policing can also contribute to making illicit drugs more lethal in the long run, she adds, referring to an idea called the “iron law of prohibition” — the idea that drug dealers will only get craftier as time goes on.
“It incentivizes them to actually focus on drugs that are more potent, therefore of lesser volume, that [are easier] to evade detection with,” she said.
“This is part of the reason why we think we’ve seen this move across North America from heroin, which is bulkier but less potent, to fentanyl, which is [easier] to transport because it’s more potent. You can use a smaller amount to get the same impact as a larger amount of heroin.”
That theory also explains why fentanyl analogs such as carfentanil are showing up more frequently, she adds.
The lack of evidence showing policing helps with drug-related harm should motivate governments to fund harm reduction programs instead, according to Kolla: safe consumption sites, medicines and safe supply have all been widely shown to prevent deaths.
McNeil told reporters Wednesday that the RNC collaborates with community partners “quite regularly” when officers turn up a large amount of illicit drugs.
“We’re dealing with the people in health, our support groups that are not for profit … interacting with the vulnerable members of our public on our streets,” McNeil said in response to a question about how the force mitigates overdose risk in the general population.
“We engage in education activities and initiatives, you know, internally and externally. We’re also speaking to our own members about the dangers of these things and making sure that we’re all protected.”
Police twigged to the Cochrane Pond manufacturing operation in February 2024, and executed search warrants on three properties on Sept. 23 of that year, according to a December 2024 affidavit by RNC Const. Evan Farrell.
That court document offers a glimpse into the complexity of the probe.
Farrell said investigators had sent 120 samples of the seized drugs to a Health Canada lab for analysis.
“The number of samples obtained … was very large,” Farrell wrote in his request to a judge to continue to hold onto the seized evidence.
“Laying charges prior to the completion of the analysis of all samples would cause an incomplete investigation.”
That affidavit has not been tested in court.
Emma Murphy, 24, and Martin Marks, 29, face over 80 charges between them. They have not yet made their first court appearance, according to RNC spokesperson Danielle Barron, and are not currently in custody.
They were released on notices to appear in provincial court on July 8.
Chris Somerton, who police say was the duo’s drug runner, will appear June 17 on trafficking charges.
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