As Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola products continue to hamper the cash price of one of the country’s most valuable crops, farming experts say producers have big decisions ahead of them.
Market analyst Chuck Penner with LeftField Commodity Research said while future prices are down slightly, the cash price farmers receive for their canola, also known as the basis, is much lower.
He said the drop has resulted in farmers losing at least $140 million on their canola in the last two weeks. But compared with March, when China imposed a 100 per cent tariff on canola oil and meal, losses amount to $800 million, he said.
“There’s other factors going on in the market as well, but that’s just a quick and dirty look at it,” Penner said.
Farmers “don’t like it, and they feel like they’re being sacrificed to support eastern Canadian industries, whether that’s true or not.”
The hit to Canada’s canola industry comes more than two weeks after China hit Canadian canola seed with a 75.8 per cent tariff.
Beijing’s duty on canola seed was seen as a response to Canada’s 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
Penner said farmers plan on growing canola next year, but just how much will depend on market forces and their land management practices, known as crop rotations.
Producers change out the crops they plant each year to manage soil nutrients and limit diseases. Prairie farmers tend to cycle their fields with oilseeds, cereals and pulses over a three-year period.
“You can’t just stop growing one of those crops wholesale because it’s a complex system,” Penner said. “Farmers have been through low price environments before, but usually they’re related to supply and demand, rather than these abrupt trade decisions.
“If we didn’t have this China situation, farmers would be able to plan and look ahead more effectively.”
Canola is considered a high source of farm revenue for Canadian producers, but it’s also among the most expensive to grow.
Chris Davison with the Canola Council of Canada says canola has historically been a productive and profitable crop.
“We’re certainly going to do everything we can to help support and create the conditions that enable that to continue,” Davison said.
“A big part of that is working to make sure that we’ve got our export markets and demand for Canadian canola seed, oil and meal functioning optimally.”
China is Canada’s second-largest importer of canola products, behind only the United States.
Davison said this year’s canola crop is shaping up to be more bountiful than last, which could create additional pressures should China’s tariffs persist.
“If harvest is larger than what is estimated, then we lose the demand signal for Canadian canola. That certainly has the real potential to make things more challenging,” he said.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have said Ottawa should drop its 100 per cent electric vehicle tariff on Beijing.
Davison said doing so should be part of discussions between China and Canada.
“They are political issues that require a political solution,” he said. “It’s really important that we understand what it’s going to take to resolve the issue before determining which levers we can pull.”
The canola industry contributed $43 billion to Canada’s economy last year and employs roughly 200,000 people.
The canola seed tariff came into force nearly a year after Beijing launched an anti-dumping probe into the crop.
China’s Ministry of Commerce has argued Canadian canola companies were dumping the product into the Chinese market, hurting its domestic canola oil market.
Ottawa and farmers have denied dumping, saying exporters are following rules-based trade.
Ottawa has said China has until September, when the anti-dumping investigation formally ends, to make a final decision on the duty. China can extend the deadline by six months.
In 2019, China restricted canola imports from two grain companies after Canada detained Meng Wanzhou, a Chinese business executive. Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig were also detained in China days after Meng’s arrest.
Meng and the two Canadians were released to their countries in 2021 and China lifted its ban on canola the next year.
Penner said the issue this time is different, as 2019 didn’t involve broad tariffs.
“What we can take from it is farmers and industry are at the mercy of politics,” he said. “There is precious little they can do about it.”
