Bonnie Crombie’s political future will be in the hands of Ontario Liberals this weekend, as she faces a mandatory leadership review to determine if she’ll stay on as head of the provincial party.
The vote comes six months after the Liberals placed third in seat count in last February’s snap election and triggered internal frustration at the way Crombie’s team ran the party’s campaign.
The Liberal leader has criss-crossed the province this summer meeting party members, hearing from them about the election “wins and misses.” It’s all in an effort to sow up support ahead of the vote at a party annual general meeting that starts Friday.
Under the Liberal constitution, she needs over 50 per cent support in the review to stay on. But a group within Liberal Party, calling themselves New Leaf Liberals, says Crombie must secure at least 66 per cent of the result to remain at the helm.
“I’m extremely confident about this weekend,” Crombie said about the review vote. “I think it’s an opportunity to bring everyone together and show great unity.”
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives called a snap election earlier this year and won a third-straight majority government. Crombie’s Liberals came second in the popular vote, winning nearly 30 per cent support.
That translated to winning 14 seats and helped the party secure official party status — along with millions in resources — for the first time since 2018.
But the Liberals remain the third place party in the legislature despite their improved vote share. Crombie failed to win her own seat in Mississauga where she once served as mayor, leaving her outside of the house and its debates.
Crombie reacts to Ontario election loss
The leadership vote will take place less than a week after an internal review of the Liberal campaign was released. A three-member committee dissected the party’s finish, lauding the improved seat count and work to re-gain official party status.
But they also criticized multiple aspects of the campaign team’s strategy and communications, including the decision to focus on health care as the central theme of their platform and allowing Ford to frame the vote as a fight with U.S. President Donald Trump over his tariff policies.
Crombie said she agrees with and accepts the findings.
“We knew at the time there were flaws, but there wasn’t a lot of time to address them, given the short 28-day period,” she said. “And you know, the deck was stacked against us this winter.”
Crombie won the Liberal leadership in a closer than expected third ballot vote at a party convention more than a year and a half ago. She edged out federal MP and former cabinet minister Nathaniel Erskine-Smith with 53 per cent of delegate points to his 47 per cent.
The New Leaf Liberals have said it’s time for new leadership of the party after the disappointing results of the campaign. They say Crombie and her team should have pivoted away from the health-care theme when the campaign dynamic changed and should have been ready with a full slate of candidates months earlier.
Erskine-Smith has been critical of Crombie’s leadership, urging members to vote for change. The New Leaf Liberals say they aren’t affiliated with the federal MP, but are also saying they want fresh leadership.
Nathaniel Arfin, who is one of the co-founders of the group, said he is confident party members will vote to unseat Crombie.
“I think that throughout the course of the summer, Bonnie has been making her case, but at the same time, Liberals have recognized that she started making that case too late,” he said.
“The contrition that she’s attempting to show, it’s not from a place of recognizing specific failures, but working to save her leadership in the run up to this contest.”
Crombie said she and her team are addressing concerns raised about the campaign. Securing official party status, with the funding and staff resources that come with it, will go a long way toward helping to rebuild the party, she added.
“I think (party members) realize that the outcome of the election wasn’t what any of us had wanted, particularly me,” she said. “There were some learnings from that, and we have adopted them, and we have embraced them, and I’m fully accountable to them.”
Despite the opposition, most of the party caucus and former premier Kathleen Wynne have signalled their support for Crombie on social media. Liberal strategist Charles Bird said the party was able to increase its seat count and popular support in the snap vote and has been honest about the short-comings of the campaign. He believes Crombie will garner enough support in the review to stay on.
“The level of support for Bonnie Crombie in the caucus, and in fact, as far as I can tell, across the party, is super-high right now,” said Bird, who is a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies.
Former Ontario Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy said he doesn’t think the party has the appetite to launch what would be its third leadership contest since 2018. And while the federal Liberals were successful after moving on from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney earlier this year — they won the federal election in April — the dynamics are different in Ontario, he said.
“I think the party is exhausted,” said Milloy, who is now the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College.
“I suspect they’re just going to stick with the leader they have and continue to build and continue to push her to up her game.”
The results of the Liberal leadership review will be announced Sunday.
