For the Progressive Conservatives, the 2025 election campaign was about the cost of living, health care, and crime.
But mostly, it was about change.
Voters delivered that change Tuesday, in a shock majority victory elevating Tony Wakeham to the province’s top political job, soon to be sworn in as the 16th premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.
“An election delivers a mandate, but it does not by itself deliver change,” Wakeham said in his victory speech, delivered late Tuesday night in Stephenville.
“Change is up to all of us. And it is my promise to you, that as premier, I will give this everything I’ve got. To deliver the better health care, lower taxes, and safer communities that you all deserve.… Let’s build a better, brighter future for all of us.”
By contrast, Liberal Leader John Hogan laser-focused his campaign on one issue.
That turned out to be a bad political choice.
The Churchill Falls MOU wasn’t just a plank in the Liberal platform — it was the foundation, frame, walls, floors, joists, roof and pretty much everything in between.
Now, the entire deal is in danger of being pulled apart.
The incoming premier will face a suite of immediate decisions.
Certainly the biggest is the fate of that massive hydroelectric deal signed by former Liberal premier Andrew Furey less than a year ago.
Wakeham has pledged not to proceed with any deal on the Churchill River unless voters give it the green light in a referendum.
“We will develop Churchill Falls. We will develop Gull Island. We will electrify Labrador. We will develop our resources, with our workers, for the benefits of our communities,” Wakeham said in his victory speech.
“But the era of a rubber-stamp government is over. When it comes to our province’s resources, we will be the ones calling the shots.”
The premier-designate said he will “demand a true independent review that will share its conclusions with the public.”
Wakeham said he will use that review “to fix this deal or demand a better one.”
Meanwhile, the pending hydro deal Wakeham inherits is facing crushing deadline pressure.
Quebec Premier Francois Legault’s popularity has cratered. Legault must go to the polls within a year, and his tenuous political future puts the deal in doubt.
And there are other challenges.
The province’s fiscal situation has deteriorated since the spring budget, with the projected deficit nearly doubling, to a level not seen since the first year of the pandemic.
The Wakeham Tories have accused the Liberals of hiding even more bad news, with their accounting treatment of a tobacco lawsuit windfall settlement.
The Tory platform pledged to ensure that Newfoundland and Labrador gets its “fair share” of work on the Bay du Nord project, including topside work. That helped earn an endorsement from Trades N.L.
The incoming premier will have to thread the needle of maximizing local benefits and jobs on the project after the proponent hit pause two years ago, due to ballooning construction costs.
And there were hundreds of millions in PC campaign promises — everything from building new ferries to sweeping tax relief to buying four new MRI machines.
The Tory campaign tailored its messaging to a receptive audience.
But the Wakeham team also benefited from a perfectly-aligned series of political dominos falling in place, one by one.
A cascading series of vote splits mostly went their way, to eke out relatively narrow wins in targeted pickups across rural Newfoundland and Labrador, in defiance of public-opinion polls.
They held off high-profile Liberal challengers to PC incumbents, especially in the metro suburbs, while picking off seats vacated by departed Liberal cabinet ministers.
The Tories captured 40 per cent more seats than the Liberals, while winning the popular vote by a margin of one percentage point.
That combination of numbers proved to be enough to push Tony Wakeham to the premier’s office.
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