Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after last week’s sharp dip below the $100,000 mark. Bulls have managed to hold the line, but momentum remains cautious as the market digests a complex mix of profit-taking and structural change. According to top analyst Darkfost, the recent selling activity among long-term holders — or “old whales” — is not necessarily a bearish sign but a natural part of the market’s evolution.
“Yes, it’s true that many old whales are waking up and selling,” Darkfost explains. “But that’s happening simply because they can now.”
In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s smaller market capitalization and lack of deep institutional liquidity made it difficult for large holders to exit without causing severe price disruptions. Now, thanks to the growth of ETFs, deep asset tokenization (DAT), and even government-level participation, these investors can offload large amounts of BTC more efficiently.
This ongoing distribution phase is seen as a healthy process that redistributes coins across new market participants, building a stronger, more liquid foundation for the next leg of growth. While short-term volatility persists, analysts argue that this transition reflects a maturing Bitcoin ecosystem capable of absorbing large flows without structural damage.
Whales Resume Accumulation After Temporary Distribution
According to Darkfost, the broader on-chain picture reveals that Bitcoin’s whales — large entities holding significant BTC balances — remain active participants in this cycle, and many continue to accumulate. The 1-Year Change in Whale Holdings, a key long-term metric, has been steadily increasing since 2023, suggesting that despite recent volatility and headline-driven fear, large players are not abandoning the market.
Zooming into recent activity, however, the data tells a nuanced story. After a strong August rally, when Bitcoin climbed toward $123,000, whale holdings experienced a sharp drawdown — falling from roughly 398,000 BTC to 185,000 BTC by October. This period aligned with profit-taking and renewed selling from older cohorts, as prices reached psychologically significant resistance zones.
Yet, by early November, the trend shifted again. Whale accumulation resumed, with holdings rising to about 294,000 BTC. This rebound suggests that while some early whales are distributing, a new wave of capital — possibly institutional or strategic investors — is entering the market at these levels.
Darkfost emphasizes that this structure is very different from the late 2021 distribution phase, which preceded a prolonged bear market. Instead, the current cycle reflects a rotational accumulation process, where selling by older whales is offset by steady demand from newer, high-conviction participants.
This dynamic points to an evolving, more mature Bitcoin market capable of absorbing distribution without triggering systemic weakness.
Bitcoin Regains Ground After Sharp Correction
Bitcoin is showing early signs of strength after last week’s sharp correction pushed prices briefly below the $100,000 level. On the 4-hour chart, BTC has rebounded firmly, reclaiming the $106,000 area after forming a short-term base near $101,000. This recovery follows a period of heavy selling pressure, which flushed out over-leveraged traders and helped reset market positioning.
Price action now shows BTC testing the $106,500–$107,000 resistance zone, which aligns with a previous local breakdown point from early November. A confirmed breakout above this level could open the door for a move toward $110,000, though volume remains modest, signaling cautious participation from traders.
On the downside, $103,000 serves as immediate support, while a more significant demand zone lies between $100,000–$101,000, where buyers previously defended the market with high volume. Holding this range would reinforce the case for a gradual recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
